BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:talks.ox.ac.uk BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in War Termin ation - Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of Oxf ord) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260310T160000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260310T173000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/43738136-710c-42b6-b995-c469c6105276/ DESCRIPTION:Is nuclear conflict manageable\, or does any use of nuclear we apons inexorably push states toward escalation? And how do these dynamics differ between nuclear- and conventional-armed attacks? Many theorists hav e considered these questions\, but empirically answering them is difficult given the absence of historical data. We address this challenge by fieldi ng a pre-registered experimental survey of American adults designed around a series of hypothetical vignettes featuring attacks on the United States . The vignettes vary in the targets struck (conventional military installa tions\, nuclear facilities\, or civilian facilities) and the means of atta ck (conventional munitions or nuclear weapons). We then measure preference s over concession versus retaliation\, the form and intensity of retaliati on (including nuclear options)\, and respondents’ stated reasons for and against nuclear use. To probe mechanisms\, we capture emotional reactions and broader situational assessments using both closed-ended measures and free-response prompts. By assessing the public’s response to various att acks across a range of targets\, our study identifies what actions are mor e (less) likely to generate public pressure for (de)escalation. And by pro bing the emotional reactions and logic evinced by respondents\, our study offers potential insights into the affective microfoundations underlying n uclear conflict dynamics.\n\nDr Lauren Sukin is the John G. Winant Associa te Professor in US Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and Intern ational Relations at the University of Oxford\, as well as a Professorial Fellow in Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. Dr Sukin's researc h examines historical and contemporary challenges in international securit y\, focusing particularly on the role of technology—including nuclear we apons—in alliances. Dr Sukin is an Affiliate at Stanford University's Ce nter for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)\, a Nonresident Sc holar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for Internat ional Peace\, and a Fellow at Charles University's Peace Research Centre P rague. She holds a PhD and MA from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University and ABs in political science and literary arts from Br own University.\n\nDr Sam Seitz is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Oxford's Depar tment of Politics and International Relations and a Deterrence Futures Fel low at the Royal United Services Institute. He was previously a Stanton Nu clear Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT\, where he was affiliated with the Securi ty Studies Program. De Seitz’ work primarily concerns the causes and con sequences of states' military procurement choices and the effect of these choices on alliance politics. He is especially interested in the way that procurement choices relate to issues of nuclear strategy and the role that status and prestige concerns play in shaping military force postures. \nS peakers:\nLauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of O xford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Lecture Theatre)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/43738136-710c-42b6-b995-c469c6105276/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in W ar Termination - Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (Universi ty of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Inter-alliance Security Dilemmas: Korean Counterforce Systems and Their Effect on the Sino- American Nuclear Competition - Sam Seitz (Univer sity of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20240528T133000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20240528T150000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/5843ab4e-c93a-43de-b766-2fbbb761222d/ DESCRIPTION:Cold War strategic competition was dominated by the actions of the US and USSR. Their material preponderance\, coupled with tightly inte grated multilateral alliances systems in Europe\, oriented competition aro und this central axis of competition. But the current environment is less centralized\, characterized by cross-cutting alliances and interacting nuc lear dyads. How has this changed the nature of nuclear competition? We ass ess this question by considering the inter-Korean competition and its effe cts outside the peninsula. In response to North Korea’s acquisition of n uclear weapons\, Seoul has procured stealth aircraft and precision\, long- range missiles. It has also authorized the deployment of US missile defens e systems to its territory\, pursued greater nuclear coordination with Was hington\, and even threatened nuclear acquisition itself. These moves are aimed at Pyongyang\, but they have spillover effects on China. Exploiting new Chinese language military documents\, we show that South Korea’s inc reasingly sophisticated arsenal of counterforce systems is contributing to Beijing’s anxiety about the survivability of its nuclear arsenal\, help ing to spur China’s nuclear arsenal expansion. This has important implic ations both for the academic literature on alliances and arms racing as we ll as for policy debates surrounding Sino-American nuclear competition. In particular\, it suggests that alliances might not just entrap patrons in wars but also in arms races. This creates a type of inter-alliance securit y dilemma\, where security spirals in one state dyad produce security spir als in separate state dyads. Further\, it reveals that contemporary strate gic competition in East Asia systematically differs from the Cold War due to the existence of multiple cross-cutting alliances. This complicates sig naling efforts\, and\, by increasing the number of relevant actors\, augur s deep challenges for any efforts at bilateral nuclear arms control betwee n the US and China.\n\nSamuel Seitz is an incoming Stanton Nuclear Securit y Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program and DPhil Candidate in Intern ational Relations at The University of Oxford. His research interests incl ude status-seeking in international relations\, nuclear strategy\, militar y procurement policy\, alliance politics\, and the ways in which they inte rsect. His work has been published in Contemporary Security Policy\, The W ashington Quarterly\, Foreign Affairs\, and The US-China Perception Monito r. Sam has also worked as a Summer Associate and Adjunct Researcher at the RAND Corporation. He received an M.A. in Security Studies and a B.S.F.S. in International Politics from Georgetown University.\nSpeakers:\nSam Seit z (University of Oxford) LOCATION:All Souls College (Old Library)\, High Street OX1 4AL TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/5843ab4e-c93a-43de-b766-2fbbb761222d/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Inter-alliance Security Dilemmas: Korean Counterforce Sys tems and Their Effect on the Sino- American Nuclear Competition - Sam Seit z (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Purchasing Prestige or Seeking Security? Military Procurement Choi ces Between the Dual Pressures of Status Loss and Military Threats - Sam S eitz (University of Oxford)\, Patrick Gill-Tiney (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20230119T150000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20230119T163000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/859103d4-9a47-4b38-b3e6-a2cdcadab6f9/ DESCRIPTION:Discussant: Patrick Gill-Tiney\nSpeakers:\nSam Seitz (Universi ty of Oxford)\, Patrick Gill-Tiney (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room A)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/859103d4-9a47-4b38-b3e6-a2cdcadab6f9/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Purchasing Prestige or Seeking Security? Military Procure ment Choices Between the Dual Pressures of Status Loss and Military Threat s - Sam Seitz (University of Oxford)\, Patrick Gill-Tiney (University of O xford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:NATO's Nordic Neophytes: How Sweden & Finland's Accession to NATO Alters the Military Balance in Northeast Europe - Julia Carver (Universit y of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20230307T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20230307T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/f0647a84-1343-4fc1-aa93-67bbe083e4ba/ DESCRIPTION:Sandwiches will be available from 12.40\n\nDoes the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO alter the strategic balance in the Baltics? Stockholm and Helsinki’s recent decision to join the alliance has render ed most analyses on this question moot\, as extant scholarship has focused on how the two countries could cooperate with NATO outside the alliance. To redress this gap\, this paper assesses how Nordic NATO expansion shifts the military balance in northeast Europe by leveraging a mixed-methods ap proach of campaign models and elite interviews. Our campaign analyses sugg est the addition of Sweden and Finland expands NATO force projection capab ilities while simultaneously increasing the strain on Russia’s regional air defense network. Interviews allow us to corroborate these findings aga inst the strategic assessments of key NATO and European policymakers\, and to probe the extent to which their strategic judgements mirror popular di scourse around NATO expansion. Our findings have critical policy and acade mic implications\, suggesting that Swedish and Finnish accession strengthe n NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltics. Consequently\, Nordic expansi on is expected to reduce the odds of a Russian fait accompli in the region —thereby strengthening deterrence.\nSpeakers:\nJulia Carver (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Lecture Theatre)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/f0647a84-1343-4fc1-aa93-67bbe083e4ba/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:NATO's Nordic Neophytes: How Sweden & Finland's Accession to NATO Alters the Military Balance in Northeast Europe - Julia Carver ( University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR