BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:talks.ox.ac.uk BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Trojan Horse\, Copycat\, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terr orism Nexus - Dr Sara Polo (University of Essex) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200211T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200211T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/27fe616f-bb8e-4694-b1d2-a9ce957e4247/ DESCRIPTION:Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at the heart of the `refugee crisis'. Yet\, we lack rig orous evidence for such claims. This article theoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movements plausibly lead to d ifferent types of terrorist outcomes. Combining original data with a multi -pronged approach involving a treatment-placebo design as well as instrume ntal variable estimation\, we provide systematic and robust evidence that sheds new light on the security implications of forced migration. Our find ings challenge the claim that hosting refugees heightens the risk of "impo rting" terrorist attacks against nationals of host countries\, especially in developed countries. However\, in these countries refugees themselves a re particularly prone to becoming the targets of terrorist attacks by nati ves\, driven by fear and revenge. Dominant policy responses to the refugee crisis that raise fears and suspicions are therefore not only ill-suited\ , but potentially counterproductive.\n\nSara M.T. Polo is a Lecturer in th e Department of Government at the University of Essex. Previously\, from 2 015 to 2018\, she was an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Rice University in Houston\, Texas. Sara’s research focuses on the causes\, d iffusion\, and targets of terrorism and on the determinants and dynamics o f violent and nonviolent conflict. Some of her current projects examine th e causes and dynamics of terrorism in civil war\, the diffusion of terrori st tactics\, terrorist target choice\, the refugees-terrorism nexus\, and the unintended consequences of peacekeeping operations.\n\nA sandwich lunc h will be served at 12.45\nSpeakers:\nDr Sara Polo (University of Essex) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/27fe616f-bb8e-4694-b1d2-a9ce957e4247/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Trojan Horse\, Copycat\, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refu gees-Terrorism Nexus - Dr Sara Polo (University of Essex) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines between War a nd Peace - Dr Oscar Jonsson (Stockholm Free World Forum) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200128T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200128T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/5d688f24-2adc-466a-9438-94d59d9fe030/ DESCRIPTION:This book analyzes the evolution of Russian military thought a nd how Russia's current thinking about war is reflected in recent crises. While other books describe current Russian practice\, Oscar Jonsson provid es the long view to show how Russian military strategic thinking has devel oped from the Bolshevik Revolution to the present. He examines Russian pri mary sources including security doctrines and the writings and statements of Russian military theorists and political elites. What Jonsson reveals i s that Russia's conception of the very nature of war is now changing\, as Russian elites see information warfare and political subversion as the mos t important ways to conduct contemporary war. Since information warfare an d political subversion are below the traditional threshold of armed violen ce\, this has blurred the boundaries between war and peace. Jonsson also f inds that Russian leaders have\, particularly since 2012-14\, considered t hemselves to be at war with the United States and its allies\, albeit with non-violent means. This book provides much needed context and analysis to be able to understand recent Russian interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine\, how to deter Russia on the eastern borders of NATO\, and how the West must also learn to avoid inadvertent escalation.\n\nOscar Jonsson is the current Director of the Stockholm Free World Forum (Frivärld) and as sociated researcher at the Swedish Defense University\, on The Russian Und erstanding of War: Blurring the Lines between War and Peace (Georgetown Un iversity Press\, November 2019) . He has previously held positions as a vi siting researcher at University of California-Berkeley and worked at the s wedish armed forces headquarters as an expert on hybrid warfare\, Russian strategy and tactics as well as security political analysis. Jonsson has a lso previously worked at the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris. He has been active in the security policy debate as an expert c ommentator and freelance writer for major media outlets\, magazines and th ink tanks.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45.\nSpeakers:\nDr Osc ar Jonsson (Stockholm Free World Forum) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/5d688f24-2adc-466a-9438-94d59d9fe030/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines betw een War and Peace - Dr Oscar Jonsson (Stockholm Free World Forum) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming T omorrow's Terrorists - Professor Audrey Kurth Cronin (American University) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200211T170000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200211T180000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/a595aa7f-7031-4c6b-b66a-c89f0a6b5bc1/ DESCRIPTION:Audrey Kurth Cronin is Founding Director of the Center for Sec urity\, Innovation and New Technology at American University in Washington \, DC\, and Professor at the School of International Service. Professor C ronin’s career has combined academic positions and government service. She was a faculty member and director of the core course on War and Statec raft at the U.S. National War College (2007-2011). She came to the war co llege from Oxford University (Nuffield College)\, where she was Academic D irector of Studies for the Oxford/Leverhulme Programme on the Changing Cha racter of War (now CCW) from 2005 to 2007. Before that\, she was Speciali st in Terrorism at the Congressional Research Service\, responsible for ad vising Members of Congress in the aftermath of 9/11. She has also served i n the U.S. Executive branch\, including in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy. She frequently consults at the most senior levels of the U.S. government. \n\nProfessor Cronin is widely published on strategy and nonstate actors. Her best-known book is How Terrorism Ends: Understan ding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns (Princeton University P ress)\, recently translated into Chinese and Arabic. In 2017\, The New Yo rker called it a “landmark study.” Her newest book\, Power to the Peo ple: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists ( Oxford University Press\, 2020)\, which Foreign Affairs recently named on its “Best of 2019” list\, analyzes the risks and opportunities of emer ging technologies\, especially patterns of global diffusion and innovation by individuals\, terrorists\, insurgents and other private actors.\nSpeak ers:\nProfessor Audrey Kurth Cronin (American University) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/a595aa7f-7031-4c6b-b66a-c89f0a6b5bc1/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow's Terrorists - Professor Audrey Kurth Cronin (American Un iversity) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Grey Zone Conflict and Hybrid Threats: An Era of Legal Competition - Dr Aurel Sari (University of Exeter) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191112T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191112T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/850932c3-3e2e-43c8-9b9b-76de268879b0/ DESCRIPTION:The notions of hybrid warfare and hybrid threats\, together wi th the related concept of grey zone warfare\, continue to feature prominen tly in current strategic debates. The purpose of this seminar is to explor e the legal dimension of these ideas. Collectively\, they draw our attenti on to a set of legal challenges presented by the use of coercive measures below the threshold of force and armed attack and\, more generally\, to th e hostile instrumentalization of law in pursuit of geopolitical objectives . The seminar will make the case that law is not merely an incidental aspe ct\, but is an integral component\, of grey zone and hybrid threats. Compe tition in the legal domain is unavoidable. This\, in turn\, calls for the adoption of a legal resilience mindset. \n\nDr Aurel Sari is an Associate Professor of Public International Law at the University of Exeter. He is t he Director of the Exeter Centre for International Law\, a Fellow of Supre me Headquarters Allied Powers Europe and a Fellow of the Allied Rapid Reac tion Corps. Dr Sari’s work focuses primarily on international conflict a nd security law and the law relating to military operations. He has publis hed widely on the law of armed conflict\, status of forces agreements\, pe ace support operations\, international human rights law and the legal fram ework of European security and defence policy. Dr Sari has spoken and writ ten extensively on the topic hybrid warfare\, including at the invitation of the Council of Europe\, NATO\, the European Centre of Excellence for Co untering Hybrid Threats\, US EUCOM and US AFRICOM. He serves on the Board of Directors of the International Society for Military Law and the Law of War.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45\nSpeakers:\nDr Aurel Sari (University of Exeter) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/850932c3-3e2e-43c8-9b9b-76de268879b0/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Grey Zone Conflict and Hybrid Threats: An Era of Legal Co mpetition - Dr Aurel Sari (University of Exeter) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Grandiose strategy? Refining the scope of grand strategy - Dr Will iam James (Harvard) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191105T163000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191105T173000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/6db10fac-ce5d-47bc-9991-fbdf45c50e63/ DESCRIPTION:Grand strategy divides opinion. Some critics regard it as unat tainable\, while others see it as hubristic. Its foremost advocates\, mean while\, idealise it as a silver bullet for resolving foreign policy dilemm as. Whether it is the challenge posed by revisionist states such as Russia \, or non-state actors such as ISIS\, it seems there is no problem on eart h that cannot be solved without the development of a grand strategy. This talk constitutes part of a growing effort to reset expectations of the con cept. All decision-makers are inevitably faced with trade-offs over their state’s competing interests and they make judgements about which goals a nd threats are the most important and how resources should be deployed to meet them. When policymakers proportion their aspirations to the state’s capabilities\, they are likely to avoid the perils of underreach and over stretch. Instead of focusing on grand plans or other prescriptive solution s\, the speaker makes the case for analysing a state’s behaviour over ti me using the benchmark of proportionality.\n\nWilliam James is a post-doct oral fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and In ternational Affairs. He defended his DPhil thesis from the University of O xford in May 2019. William’s research centres on grand strategy\, transa tlantic relations\, European security\, alliance politics\, as well as Bri tish foreign and defence policy since 1940. He is particularly interested in projects that bridge the gap between the academic and policy worlds.\nS peakers:\nDr William James (Harvard) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Skills Lab)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/6db10fac-ce5d-47bc-9991-fbdf45c50e63/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Grandiose strategy? Refining the scope of grand strategy - Dr William James (Harvard) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Lawrence of Arabia on War: Ideas\, Utilisation and Exploitation - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191016T171500 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191016T181500 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/86405f0b-0220-4903-8b8f-1fc4f6803940/ DESCRIPTION:Lawrence of Arabia on War: Ideas\, Utilisation and Exploitatio n\nThis is a critical military appraisal of T.E. Lawrence’s ideas on war \, examining his guerrilla campaign and his theories on strategy\, juxtapo sed against the operations conducted by the Ottoman Empire and those of th e Allied army in Palestine. It sets out the strategic and political contex t of his thinking\, contrasting these with Lawrence’s understanding of t he nature of war\, and how he conceived of strategic success beyond the ta ctical activities of insurgents. This work traces the evolution of Lawrenc e’s ideas about guerrilla warfare\, from theoretical beginnings to hard- won experience. It concludes with a brief survey of how Lawrence has been used by his successors\, not least by military personnel in countering ins urgency and by those seeking to celebrate his achievements as a heroic cha mpion of liberation. \n\nDr Rob Johnson is the Director of the Changing Ch aracter of War (CCW) Research Centre at the University of Oxford ( www.ccw .ox.ac.uk\n) and Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke. His primary research interests are in the history of strategy and war\, and their contemporary applications. Amongst his historical works\, he has written True to Their Salt (Hurst and OUP\, 2017) on partnering local forces\; The Great War and the Middle East (OUP\, 2016)\; and co- edited\, with Dr James Kitchen\, a new international study entitled The Great War in the Middle East (Routle dge\, 2018). Over the last twenty years\, he has written on several other conflicts and internal security operations in Asia\, Africa\, and Europe i n the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. His current research is a new st udy of Anglo-American strategic decision-making in the two world wars. How ever\, the subject of this seminar\, appropriate to his return to All Soul s\, is the recently completed book on T.E. Lawrence's ideas on war. \nSpea kers:\nDr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) LOCATION:All Souls College (Old Library)\, High Street OX1 4AL TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/86405f0b-0220-4903-8b8f-1fc4f6803940/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Lawrence of Arabia on War: Ideas\, Utilisation and Exploi tation - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Understanding the China Threat - Bradley Thayer (University of Te xas San Antonio)\, Lianchao Han (Understanding the China Threat) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191119T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191119T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/18b0cb39-a76d-4ce2-953e-8139cf7f8ae7/ DESCRIPTION:Despite the importance of the worsening Sino-American relation ship\, the nature and scope of the threat remain poorly defined. Understa nding the future of the Sino-American confrontation requires comprehending why China and the United States possess motivations for conflict. To add ress this\, we explain the two causes of the Sino-American confrontation. First\, the change in the balance of power in China’s favor. Second\, the conflicting ideologies of the two states. We submit that the relation ship is likely to become much worse due to increasing security competition .\n\nBradley A. Thayer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Texas San Antonio and is the co-author of How China Sees the World: Ha n-Centrism and the Balance of Power in International Politics. Lianchao Ha n is vice president of Citizen Power Initiatives for China. After the Tian anmen Square Massacre in 1989\, Dr. Han was one of the founders of the Ind ependent Federation of Chinese Students and Scholars. He worked in the U.S . Senate for 12 years\, as legislative counsel and policy director for thr ee Senators.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45.\nSpeakers:\nBrad ley Thayer (University of Texas San Antonio)\, Lianchao Han (Understanding the China Threat) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room g)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/18b0cb39-a76d-4ce2-953e-8139cf7f8ae7/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Understanding the China Threat - Bradley Thayer (Univers ity of Texas San Antonio)\, Lianchao Han (Understanding the China Threat) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Marginality\, (in)security and political participation in conflict and beyond - Dr Daire McGill (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191126T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191126T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/d6862905-27ff-49e7-a47a-d6cbcb1c5214/ DESCRIPTION:Marginality and insecurity have long been loosely twined toget her in Colombia\, especially within the context of conflict. The 2016 Hava na Peace Accord was heralded for ending America’s longest internal armed conflict and creating an opportunity to confront high rates of marginalit y and insecurity through an ambitious comprehensive agreement that made ex plicit the need for peaceful political participation to build sustainable peace. Yet the initial accord was defeated in plebiscite\, an anti-accord president was elected in 2018\, and implementation of key points has been slow. At the same time\, armed actors are (re)forming and mutating\, and i llicit economies and corruption continue to mark the everyday realities of marginalised groups. After mapping marginality conceptually\, geographica lly and socially\, and showing its interaction with conflict and insecurit y in Colombia\, this ongoing research project will examine whether rates a nd modes of participation are changing and what these may reveal about tre nds in marginalisation and (in)security. \n\nDaire McGill’s research is primarily focussed on the contribution of local communities in the Colombi an-Venezuelan border region to creating contextually appropriate security- related policies and practices. This examines both how security is unders tood and solutions proposed at the local level\, and the extent to which l ocal knowledges influence the overall security architecture through intera ctions at municipal\, departmental\, and national level. A second research strand is on the changing political and security perceptions of Venezuela n citizens over the last fifteen years.\n\nDáire holds a PhD from the Tra nsitional Justice Institute at Ulster University\, having previously recei ved a BA in Latin American Studies from the University of Liverpool and an MSc in Globalisation and Development from the University of London. His PhD operationalised the theoretical framework of Transformative Justice in a Structural Violence Reduction Matrix (SVRM)\, an analytical tool to eva luate the transformative potential of public policy initiatives – across their diagnostic\, process\, and outcome dimensions - undertaken in trans itional contexts. The SVRM was applied to rural initiatives in Colombia\, providing empirical insights into the characteristics necessary for initi atives to address structural violence as well as the weaknesses of transit ional justice approaches.\n\nHis work has appeared most recently in public ations of the International State Crime Initiative and the Routledge Trans itional Justice series.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45.\nSpea kers:\nDr Daire McGill (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/d6862905-27ff-49e7-a47a-d6cbcb1c5214/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Marginality\, (in)security and political participation in conflict and beyond - Dr Daire McGill (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Coercion without war? Chinese maritime paramilitary and constabula ry activities and the fallacy of the grey zone - Dr Alessio Patalano DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191105T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191105T143000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/ecfe5e68-0738-49a6-b20a-8d85bdc73960/ DESCRIPTION:Is it possible to sustain maritime coercion without it escalat ing into outright war? The paper reviews the posture and activities of the Chinese coast guard and maritime militias to address this question. In so doing\, it challenges the widespread notion in the literature that Chines e maritime coercion in the East and South China Seas (ESCS) is best descri bed as a grey zone strategy. The ‘grey zone’ notion uncritically assum es that the use of force is designed to remain below the threshold of war. A review of Chinese maritime activities suggests instead that Beijing's c laims to control ‘rights and interests’ are a function of a broader st rategic intention to project military power within and beyond the confines of the ESCS\, whilst preventing others to do the same. Thus\, the ability for coercion to remain beneath there threshold depends on the degree to w hich other actors are willing to accept the cumulative effects of changes to strategic balance brought about by Chinese paramilitary and constabular y activities. Within this context\, Chinese paramilitary and constabulary activities increase long-term strategic competition and with it\, the risk of war. \n\nDr Patalano is Reader in East Asian Warfare and Security a t the Department of War Studies (DWS)\, King’s College London (KCL). He specialises in maritime strategy and doctrine\, Japanese military history and strategy\, East Asian Security\, and Italian defence policy. Dr Patala no is currently visiting professor at the Japan Maritime Command and Staff College (JMCSC). His monograph Post-war Japan as a Seapower: Imperial Leg acy\, Wartime Experience\, and the Making of a Navy (Bloomsbury 2015) rece ived international recognition\, is currently used for teaching purposes a t the Japanese staff college\, and is being translated in Mandarin. Dr Pat alano’s current research focuses on the impact of strategic geography on Indo-Pacific security dynamics\, and is writing a new study of the Japane se post-war submarine rearmament.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12 .45\nSpeakers:\nDr Alessio Patalano LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/ecfe5e68-0738-49a6-b20a-8d85bdc73960/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Coercion without war? Chinese maritime paramilitary and c onstabulary activities and the fallacy of the grey zone - Dr Alessio Patal ano TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:How AI could change the foundational assumptions of international relations - Dr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191029T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191029T140000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3a0bdf74-4e77-4b35-9950-b29e832d9904/ DESCRIPTION:"Realism" in international relations is constructed from past experience of what is likely and what is possible in the world. AIs may ch ange this sense of the possible tremendously - shifting both the ways that countries can compete and undermine each other\, and the deals that might become possible. On top of that\, AI itself will become a strategic asset - and target - of great value.\nThis talk will argue for why AI could bec ome so powerful\, sketch the dangers intrinsic to AI and to misuse of AI b y bad actors\, and talk about how the world could be transformed by these technologies.\nStuart Armstrong’s research at the Future of Humanity Ins titute centers on the safety and possibilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI)\, how to define the potential goals of AI and map humanity’s partia lly defined values into it\, and the long term potential for intelligent l ife across the reachable universe. He has been working with people at FHI and other organizations\, such as DeepMind\, to formalize AI desiderata in general models so that AI designers can include these safety methods in t heir designs. His collaboration with DeepMind on “Interruptibility” ha s been mentioned in over 100 media articles.\n\nStuart Armstrong’s past research interests include comparing existential risks in general\, includ ing their probability and their interactions\, anthropic probability (how the fact that we exist affects our probability estimates around that key f act)\, decision theories that are stable under self-reflection and anthrop ic considerations\, negotiation theory and how to deal with uncertainty ab out your own preferences\, computational biochemistry\, fast ligand screen ing\, parabolic geometry\, and his Oxford D. Phil. was on the holonomy of projective and conformal Cartan geometries.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be se rved at 12.45\nSpeakers:\nDr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3a0bdf74-4e77-4b35-9950-b29e832d9904/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:How AI could change the foundational assumptions of inter national relations - Dr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:How AI could change the foundational assumptions of international relations - Dr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191029T130000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191029T140000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3a0bdf74-4e77-4b35-9950-b29e832d9904/ DESCRIPTION:"Realism" in international relations is constructed from past experience of what is likely and what is possible in the world. AIs may ch ange this sense of the possible tremendously - shifting both the ways that countries can compete and undermine each other\, and the deals that might become possible. On top of that\, AI itself will become a strategic asset - and target - of great value.\nThis talk will argue for why AI could bec ome so powerful\, sketch the dangers intrinsic to AI and to misuse of AI b y bad actors\, and talk about how the world could be transformed by these technologies.\nStuart Armstrong’s research at the Future of Humanity Ins titute centers on the safety and possibilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI)\, how to define the potential goals of AI and map humanity’s partia lly defined values into it\, and the long term potential for intelligent l ife across the reachable universe. He has been working with people at FHI and other organizations\, such as DeepMind\, to formalize AI desiderata in general models so that AI designers can include these safety methods in t heir designs. His collaboration with DeepMind on “Interruptibility” ha s been mentioned in over 100 media articles.\n\nStuart Armstrong’s past research interests include comparing existential risks in general\, includ ing their probability and their interactions\, anthropic probability (how the fact that we exist affects our probability estimates around that key f act)\, decision theories that are stable under self-reflection and anthrop ic considerations\, negotiation theory and how to deal with uncertainty ab out your own preferences\, computational biochemistry\, fast ligand screen ing\, parabolic geometry\, and his Oxford D. Phil. was on the holonomy of projective and conformal Cartan geometries.\n\nA sandwich lunch will be se rved at 12.45\nSpeakers:\nDr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3a0bdf74-4e77-4b35-9950-b29e832d9904/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:How AI could change the foundational assumptions of inter national relations - Dr Stuart Armstrong (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Goliath: Why the West Isn't Winning. And What We Must Do About It - Dr Sean McFate (Atlantic Council) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191022T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191022T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/e24f2946-1087-489e-9ccc-5251d884fb3f/ DESCRIPTION:Everything you think you know about war is wrong. We are in th e midst of an age of conflict: global terrorism\, Russia's resurgence and China's rise\, international criminal empires\, climate change and dwindli ng natural resources. The stakes are high\, and we are dangerously unprepa red. The West is playing the same old war games\, but the enemy has change d the rules. In this new age of war: technology will not save us\, victor y will belong to the cunning\, not the strong\, plausible deniability is m ore potent than firepower\, corporations\, mercenaries\, and rogue states have more power than nation states\, and loyalty will sit with the highest bidder. Learn how to triumph in the coming age of conflict in ten new rul es. Adapt and we can prevail. Fail\, and size and strength won't protect u s.\n\nDr Sean McFate is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and a prof essor of strategy at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service a nd the National Defense University in Washington DC. Additionally\, he ser ves as an Advisor to Oxford University’s Centre for Technology and Globa l Affairs. McFate’s career began as a paratrooper and officer in the U.S . Army’s 82nd Airborne Division\, and then he became a private military contractor. His newest book is The New Rules of War (US version) and GOLIA TH: Why the West Isn't Winning. And What We Must Do About It. (UK version) \, which has been called “The Freakonomics of modern warfare.” It was picked by The Times and The London Evening Standard for their books of the summer 2019. McFate also writes fiction based on his real world experienc es as a private military contractor. McFate holds a BA from Brown Universi ty\, MPP from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government\, and a Ph.D. in in ternational relations from the London School of Economics and Political Sc ience (LSE). \n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45. Copies of Sean ’s book will be available to purchase after the seminar.\nSpeakers:\nDr Sean McFate (Atlantic Council) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/e24f2946-1087-489e-9ccc-5251d884fb3f/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Goliath: Why the West Isn't Winning. And What We Must Do About It - Dr Sean McFate (Atlantic Council) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:The Changing Grammar of War: Countering Hybrid and Grey Zone Coerc ion at the Strategic Level - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191015T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191015T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c8b8df80-4859-4801-8964-62f7f62bb95c/ DESCRIPTION:Dr Johnson examines the function of strategy against the pheno menon of hybrid confrontation and coercion\, that is\, situations where th ere is aggression and military threat but where hostilities have not been declared. Specifically\, it analyses the execution of hybrid strategy and it counter-strategies. First\, it evaluates the etymology of the term\, th e anxieties that it has caused in the West\, and its failures or limitatio ns. Second\, it examines the value of hybrid strategy\, and lays out the c ounter-strategy\, mapping these against the utility of force. Third\, it e xamines some approaches to the use of hybrid warfare strategy by states an d non-state actors. It concludes with a balance sheet of the advantages\, risks\, and costs of hybrid strategy\, and how states are likely to utilis e the approach in the near future. The paper will appeal to those seeking clarity on how to manage the 'grey zone'\, understanding of coercive diplo macy\, and the strategic options open to those facing confrontation. \n\nD r Rob Johnson is the Director of the Changing Character of War (CCW) Resea rch Centre at the University of Oxford ( www.ccw.ox.ac.uk). His primary re search interests are in the history of strategy and war\, and their contem porary applications\, and he is prominent within professional military edu cation across NATO. He is author True to Their Salt (2017) on partnering\, The Great War and the Middle East (2016)\, and co-editor of At the End of Military Intervention (2015) and Before Military Intervention (2018)\, as well as several other works on strategy and armed conflicts in the Middle East\, Asia and Europe. His leadership of CCW emphasizes the value of ble nding ideas\, theory\, and practice in current strategic and security poli cy. The new initiatives he leads this year include Artificial Intelligence in Forecasting\, and Strategic Decision-Making\, and Strategic Policy Sim ulation based on the traditions of Kriegspiel. He now leads the new CCW in itiative on professional education in defence and security in London and i n Washington DC. \n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45\nSpeakers:\n Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c8b8df80-4859-4801-8964-62f7f62bb95c/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:The Changing Grammar of War: Countering Hybrid and Grey Z one Coercion at the Strategic Level - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, O xford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:The Changing Grammar of War: Countering Hybrid and Grey Zone Coerc ion at the Strategic Level - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191015T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20191015T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c8b8df80-4859-4801-8964-62f7f62bb95c/ DESCRIPTION:Dr Johnson examines the function of strategy against the pheno menon of hybrid confrontation and coercion\, that is\, situations where th ere is aggression and military threat but where hostilities have not been declared. Specifically\, it analyses the execution of hybrid strategy and it counter-strategies. First\, it evaluates the etymology of the term\, th e anxieties that it has caused in the West\, and its failures or limitatio ns. Second\, it examines the value of hybrid strategy\, and lays out the c ounter-strategy\, mapping these against the utility of force. Third\, it e xamines some approaches to the use of hybrid warfare strategy by states an d non-state actors. It concludes with a balance sheet of the advantages\, risks\, and costs of hybrid strategy\, and how states are likely to utilis e the approach in the near future. The paper will appeal to those seeking clarity on how to manage the 'grey zone'\, understanding of coercive diplo macy\, and the strategic options open to those facing confrontation. \n\nD r Rob Johnson is the Director of the Changing Character of War (CCW) Resea rch Centre at the University of Oxford ( www.ccw.ox.ac.uk). His primary re search interests are in the history of strategy and war\, and their contem porary applications\, and he is prominent within professional military edu cation across NATO. He is author True to Their Salt (2017) on partnering\, The Great War and the Middle East (2016)\, and co-editor of At the End of Military Intervention (2015) and Before Military Intervention (2018)\, as well as several other works on strategy and armed conflicts in the Middle East\, Asia and Europe. His leadership of CCW emphasizes the value of ble nding ideas\, theory\, and practice in current strategic and security poli cy. The new initiatives he leads this year include Artificial Intelligence in Forecasting\, and Strategic Decision-Making\, and Strategic Policy Sim ulation based on the traditions of Kriegspiel. He now leads the new CCW in itiative on professional education in defence and security in London and i n Washington DC. \n\nA sandwich lunch will be served at 12.45\nSpeakers:\n Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c8b8df80-4859-4801-8964-62f7f62bb95c/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:The Changing Grammar of War: Countering Hybrid and Grey Z one Coercion at the Strategic Level - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, O xford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Changing Character of War Centre Annual Lecture: Causes of War\, O ld and New - Professor Sir Adam Roberts (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180523T170000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180523T180000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c4a78c93-5ceb-4a7d-bd3b-1f2446e6a008/ DESCRIPTION:Professor Adam Roberts is Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Oxford University\, and Emeritus Fellow of Balliol College\, Oxford. He was one of the founding members of CCW and served on its Academ ic Board before his retirement\, and is now Honorary Fellow and Member of the CCW Advisory Board.\nSir Adam was President of the British Academy (20 09-13). He is an Honorary Fellow of the London School of Economics & Polit ical Science (1997- )\, of St Antony's College Oxford (2006- )\, and of th e University of Cumbria (2014- ). He has been awarded Honorary Doctorates by King's College London (2010)\, Aberdeen University (2012)\, Aoyama Gaku in University\, Tokyo (2012)\, and Bath University (2014). He is a Foreign Honorary Member\, American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2011- )\, and a Member of the American Philosophical Society (2013- ). He was a member of the Council of the International Institute for Strategic Studies\, London (2002-8)\; member of the UK Defence Academy Advisory Board (2003-15)\; and member\, Board of Advisers of the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfa re\, at the United States Military Academy\, West Point (September 2016– ) .\nSir Adam remains actively engaged in research and is a regular speake r at CCW events. His main research interests are in the fields of internat ional security\, international organizations\, and international law (incl uding the laws of war). He has also worked extensively on the role of civi l resistance against authoritarian regimes and foreign rule\, and on the h istory of thought about international relations. \n\nSpeakers:\nProfessor Sir Adam Roberts (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Pembroke College (Pichette Auditorium)\, St Aldates OX1 1DW TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/c4a78c93-5ceb-4a7d-bd3b-1f2446e6a008/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Changing Character of War Centre Annual Lecture: Causes o f War\, Old and New - Professor Sir Adam Roberts (University of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Offensive Cyber\, Ecology and the Competition for Security in Cybe rspace: The United Kingdom’s Approach - Graham Fairclough (University of Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180508T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180508T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/4a4c2e77-3544-4f20-90f4-e1851eda46d3/ DESCRIPTION:The 2013 public announcement by the then Secretary of State fo r Defence\, Phillip Hammond stating that the United Kingdom was creating a n offensive cyber capability as part of its national cyber security strate gy moved the debate on the use of offensive cyber into the public policy s phere. While this debate has continued\, little detail has emerged as to h ow offensive cyber will be integrated as a tool into the United Kingdom’ s cyber security strategy and more broadly its national security structure . The Strategic Cyber Security (SCS) model seeks to answer these questions by illustrating how offensive cyber capability has been operationalised a s a critical component in the delivery of the United Kingdom’s cyber sec urity strategy. Drawing upon elements of ecological theory the model demon strates how different cyber security effects are generated to deliver an h olistic response to achieving security in the increasingly competitive env ironment of cyberspace. Development of the model is based upon a series of elite interviews with senior military and civilian policy makers and key stakeholders within the United Kingdom’s cyber security and national sec urity communities. \n\nGraham Fairclough is a former soldier now attemptin g to become an academic in the field of cybersecurity. His research is foc used on the operationalisation of national cyber security strategy\, in pa rticular the integration of offensive cyber capability and how cyber secur ity incidents are understood by decision makers with limited cyber securit y knowledge. He advises NATO and the UK’s MOD on operational cyber secur ity matters.\n\nA light sandwich lunch is served at 12.50pm. All are welco me.\nSpeakers:\nGraham Fairclough (University of Oxford) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G\, Department of Politics and International Relations)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/4a4c2e77-3544-4f20-90f4-e1851eda46d3/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Offensive Cyber\, Ecology and the Competition for Securit y in Cyberspace: The United Kingdom’s Approach - Graham Fairclough (Univ ersity of Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Cyber Strategy: The Evolution of Cyber Power and Coercion - Dr Bra ndon Valeriano (Marine Corps University) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180501T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180501T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/8f190534-7cf0-4b8b-9117-85534fbf9e72/ DESCRIPTION:This project examines the changing character of cyber strategi es in the digital domain. We develop a theory that cyber operations are a form of covert coercion typically seeking to send ambiguous signals or dem onstrate resolve. Cyber Coercion from this perspective is neither as revol utionary nor as novel as it seems when evaluated with evidence. We examine cyber strategies in their varying forms through quantitative analysis\, f inding that cyber disruptions\, short-term and long-term espionage\, and d egradation operations all usually fail to produce political concessions. W hen states do compel a rival\, which is measured as a change in behavior i n the target that is strategically advantageous to the initiator\, the cyb er operation tends to occur alongside more traditional coercive instrument s such as diplomatic pressure\, economic sanctions\, and military threats and displays. Our findings suggest that before we develop recommendations for sound foreign policy responses to state-backed cyber intrusions or cra ft international frameworks that constrain the proliferation of politicall y-motivated malware\, we should theoretically and empirically investigate cyber strategies and their efficacy. \n\nBrandon Valeriano is the Donald B ren Chair of Armed Conflict at the Marine Corps University. He has publish ed five books and dozens of articles. His two most recent books are Cyber War versus Cyber Reality (2015) and Cyber Strategy (2018)\, both with Oxfo rd University Press. Ongoing research explores cyber coercion\, biological examinations of cyber threat\, repression in cyberspace\, and the influen ce of video games on foreign policy outlooks. \n\nA light sandwich lunch i s served at 12.50pm. All are welcome.\nSpeakers:\nDr Brandon Valeriano (Ma rine Corps University) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G\, Department of Politics and International Relations)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/8f190534-7cf0-4b8b-9117-85534fbf9e72/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Cyber Strategy: The Evolution of Cyber Power and Coercion - Dr Brandon Valeriano (Marine Corps University) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Artificial intelligence\, Robotics and Conflict - Al Brown (US Min istry of Defence) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180424T130000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180424T143000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3d4a84e5-7674-43e0-83b2-2341a5337775/ DESCRIPTION:Secretary of Defence James Mattis recently said of artificial intelligence: “I’m certainly questioning my original premise that the fundamental nature of war will not change. You’ve got to question that now. I just don’t have the answers yet.” \nVladimir Putin stated: “ Artificial intelligence is the future\, not only for Russia\, but for all humankind.” .. “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”\nRobotics and artificial intelligence are alrea dy being employed in conflict. However\, artificial intelligence manages t o sit at the peak of ‘inflated expectations’ on Gartner’s technology hype curve whilst simultaneously being underestimated in other assessment s. So what are the likely effects on conflict of the trends in artificial intelligence\, robotics\, economics\, data and society? And what do peopl e commonly get wrong - often with total certainty?\n\nAl Brown works at th e Ministry of Defence’s independent think tank where he leads on examini ng trends in robotics and artificial intelligence\, and the potential impa cts that follow for the future of conflict. He has provided testimony on technology trends\, including AI and robotics\, and their defence and secu rity implications to a number of organisations\, including the United Nati ons. His military career has included multiple operational tours of Afgha nistan and Kosovo. He is by military trade an explosive ordinance disposa l officer\, a field where robotics\, data and algorithms have already been saving lives in conflict for a number of years.\n\nA light sandwich lunch is served at 12.50pm. All are welcome.\nSpeakers:\nAl Brown (US Ministry of Defence) LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room G\, Department of Politics and International Relations)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/3d4a84e5-7674-43e0-83b2-2341a5337775/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Artificial intelligence\, Robotics and Conflict - Al Brow n (US Ministry of Defence) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Veteran Dialogue and the Future of War - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke College\, Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20170613T090000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20170614T120000 UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/b3afdef6-566d-4845-aa91-35e85fddd80f/ DESCRIPTION:This event is a two-day\, panel-based workshop\, devoted to th e two themes of veteran/civilian dialogue and the future of warfare. The p urpose of this workshop is to engage a broad audience of civilians\, milit ary personnel\, academics and non-academics alike and encourage them to th ink more deeply about their moral relationship to these important and time ly themes. The veteran dialogue portion of the workshop will focus on such broad themes as: soldier recruitment and the making of soldiers\, the eth ical experience of war\, what we think society owes to veterans\, veteran healthcare and compensation\, moral injury\, PTSD\, spouse and family issu es\, and civil-military relations. The future of war portion of the worksh op will focus on such broad themes as: emerging technologies such as fully autonomous weapons\, soldier enhancement\, surveillance and meta-data\; c ounter-terrorism and institutional reform\, the ‘individualization’ of war\, war and poverty\, and emerging conceptual frameworks for military t actics and strategy.\n\nFurther information on the workshop and booking vi a Eventbrite here:\nhttp://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/events/2017/6/13/veteran-dialo gue-and-the-future-of-war\n\n\nSpeakers:\n Various Speakers LOCATION:Pembroke College (Harold Lee Room)\, St Aldates OX1 1DW TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/b3afdef6-566d-4845-aa91-35e85fddd80f/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:Veteran Dialogue and the Future of War - Dr Rob Johnson ( Pembroke College\, Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:The Great War and the Middle East - Dr Rob Johnson (Pembroke Coll ege\, Oxford) DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20161124T170000Z DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20161124T181000Z UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/98384d04-d9e2-4984-b653-331aebffdd16/ DESCRIPTION:Many of the most commonly accepted assertions about the First World War in the Middle East are more often stated than they are truly tes ted. Drawing on detailed research into the strategic and operational cours e of the war in the Middle East\, Rob argues that\, far from being a sides how to the war in Europe\, the Middle Eastern conflict was in fact the cen tre of gravity in a war for imperial domination and prestige. Moreover\, c ontrary to another persistent myth of the First World War in the Middle Ea st\, local leaders and their forces were not simply the puppets of the Gre at Powers in any straightforward sense. The way in which these local force s embraced\, resisted\, succumbed to\, disrupted\, or on occasion overturn ed the plans of the imperialist powers for their own interests in fact pla yed an important role in shaping the immediate aftermath of the conflict - and in laying the foundations for the troubled Middle East that we know t oday.\n\nThis lecture will be followed by a drinks reception and the oppor tunity to buy a copy of Rob Johnson's book The Great War and the Middle Ea st (published by OUP in October 2016).\nSpeakers:\nDr Rob Johnson (Pembrok e College\, Oxford) LOCATION:Pembroke College (Harold Lee Room)\, St Aldates OX1 1DW TZID:Europe/London URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/98384d04-d9e2-4984-b653-331aebffdd16/ BEGIN:VALARM ACTION:display DESCRIPTION:Talk:The Great War and the Middle East - Dr Rob Johnson (Pemb roke College\, Oxford) TRIGGER:-PT1H END:VALARM END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR