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SUMMARY:How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in War Termin
 ation - Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of Oxf
 ord)
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260310T160000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260310T173000Z
UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/43738136-710c-42b6-b995-c469c6105276/
DESCRIPTION:Is nuclear conflict manageable\, or does any use of nuclear we
 apons inexorably push states toward escalation? And how do these dynamics 
 differ between nuclear- and conventional-armed attacks? Many theorists hav
 e considered these questions\, but empirically answering them is difficult
  given the absence of historical data. We address this challenge by fieldi
 ng a pre-registered experimental survey of American adults designed around
  a series of hypothetical vignettes featuring attacks on the United States
 . The vignettes vary in the targets struck (conventional military installa
 tions\, nuclear facilities\, or civilian facilities) and the means of atta
 ck (conventional munitions or nuclear weapons). We then measure preference
 s over concession versus retaliation\, the form and intensity of retaliati
 on (including nuclear options)\, and respondents’ stated reasons for and
  against nuclear use. To probe mechanisms\, we capture emotional reactions
  and broader situational assessments using both closed-ended measures and 
 free-response prompts. By assessing the public’s response to various att
 acks across a range of targets\, our study identifies what actions are mor
 e (less) likely to generate public pressure for (de)escalation. And by pro
 bing the emotional reactions and logic evinced by respondents\, our study 
 offers potential insights into the affective microfoundations underlying n
 uclear conflict dynamics.\n\nDr Lauren Sukin is the John G. Winant Associa
 te Professor in US Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and Intern
 ational Relations at the University of Oxford\, as well as a Professorial 
 Fellow in Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. Dr Sukin's researc
 h examines historical and contemporary challenges in international securit
 y\, focusing particularly on the role of technology—including nuclear we
 apons—in alliances. Dr Sukin is an Affiliate at Stanford University's Ce
 nter for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)\, a Nonresident Sc
 holar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for Internat
 ional Peace\, and a Fellow at Charles University's Peace Research Centre P
 rague. She holds a PhD and MA from the Department of Political Science at 
 Stanford University and ABs in political science and literary arts from Br
 own University.\n\nDr Sam Seitz is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Oxford's Depar
 tment of Politics and International Relations and a Deterrence Futures Fel
 low at the Royal United Services Institute. He was previously a Stanton Nu
 clear Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT\, where he was affiliated with the Securi
 ty Studies Program. De Seitz’ work primarily concerns the causes and con
 sequences of states' military procurement choices and the effect of these 
 choices on alliance politics. He is especially interested in the way that 
 procurement choices relate to issues of nuclear strategy and the role that
  status and prestige concerns play in shaping military force postures. \nS
 peakers:\nLauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (University of O
 xford)
LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Lecture Theatre)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
TZID:Europe/London
URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/43738136-710c-42b6-b995-c469c6105276/
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DESCRIPTION:Talk:How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in W
 ar Termination - Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford)\, Sam Seitz (Universi
 ty of Oxford)
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