BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:talks.ox.ac.uk
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Scattered thoughts from applied probability: networks\, security
queues and prediction tournaments - Prof David Aldous (University of Calif
ornia\, Berkeley)
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20190614T143000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20190614T153000Z
UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/ccd94884-102e-473b-add9-4ca68e84bffa/
DESCRIPTION:A sample of topics that have caught my eye in recent years.\n\
n(a) Prediction tournaments are like sports in that a higher-ranked player
will likely score better than a lower-ranked one. But paradoxically\, un
der a reasonable model the winner of a tournament is relatively less likel
y to be a top-ranked player\, maybe clouding the interpretation of multimi
llion dollar IARPA-sponsored projects.\n\n(b) At the back of a long queue
at airport security\, you stand still until a wave of motion reaches you\;
a non-standard model gives quantitative predictions for such waves.\n\n(
c) Spatial networks give rise to intriguing questions. For instance\, sup
pose (as a bizarre fantasy) that an eccentric multi-billionaire proposes t
o solve traffic congestion in a huge metropolitan region by digging underg
round tunnels through which cars can move very fast\; where to dig the tun
nels?\n\n(d) As a hard technical question\, epidemic models combine a mode
l for a contact network with a model for transmission between contacts\, w
ith various parameters including an infectiousness parameter $\\rho$. Int
uitively\, there is always a critical value $\\rho_c$ such that\, starting
with a sprinkling of $o(n)$ infectives\, there will w.h.p. be a pandemic
if $\\rho > \\rho_c$ but w\,h\,p. not if $\\rho < \\rho_c$. This is true
in familiar specific models for the contact network\, but can we prove thi
s for all contact networks?\n\nSpeakers:\nProf David Aldous (University of
California\, Berkeley)
LOCATION:24-29 St Giles' (Large Lecture Theatre (LG.01))\, 24-29 St Giles'
OX1 3LB
URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/ccd94884-102e-473b-add9-4ca68e84bffa/
BEGIN:VALARM
ACTION:display
DESCRIPTION:Talk:Scattered thoughts from applied probability: networks\,
security queues and prediction tournaments - Prof David Aldous (University
of California\, Berkeley)
TRIGGER:-PT1H
END:VALARM
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR