BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:talks.ox.ac.uk
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Macro-financial linkages and the micro-evidence based foundations 
 of policy models - Professor John Muellbauer (Institute for New Economic T
 hinking at the Oxford Martin School)
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200305T150000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20200305T160000Z
UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/e57da956-4dbe-4b15-9005-0f529675de46/
DESCRIPTION:Macroeconomic policy models should track the different channel
 s of monetary transmission\, providing a framework for Monetary Policy Com
 mittees. They should also be useful for assessing risks to financial stabi
 lity\, including designing macroprudential stress tests and instrument set
 tings in the new macroprudential toolkits. Current policy models\, includi
 ng ‘semi-structural’ non-DSGE econometric models such as FRB-US\, are 
 seriously deficient in these respects. The paper explains the implications
  of three sets of evidence for the channels of monetary transmission\, and
  how these differ between countries. First\, the micro evidence on the mar
 ginal propensity to consume out of current income is that it is highest fo
 r the asset-poor\, intermediate for households poor in liquid assets but n
 ot in illiquid assets\, and lowest for the doubly asset-rich. Second\, the
  micro evidence is that changes in house prices have mainly a collateral e
 ffect on consumption. Finally\, multi-country evidence confirms large diff
 erences in the investment response to house prices. This discussion also i
 lluminates the role of real estate in the financial accelerator\, prominen
 t in the global financial crisis. A multi-purpose policy model needs to in
 clude a consumption function consistent with the micro-evidence\, with equ
 ations for permanent income\, for the balance sheet drivers\, and for resi
 dential investment\, in a household-housing sub-system. This needs to embe
 d common credit conditions in the equations\, and sub-system estimation to
  impose the cross-equation restrictions implied by these common factors.\n
 Speakers:\nProfessor John Muellbauer (Institute for New Economic Thinking 
 at the Oxford Martin School)
LOCATION:Manor Road Building (Seminar Room C)\, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
TZID:Europe/London
URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/e57da956-4dbe-4b15-9005-0f529675de46/
BEGIN:VALARM
ACTION:display
DESCRIPTION:Talk:Macro-financial linkages and the micro-evidence based fou
 ndations of policy models - Professor John Muellbauer (Institute for New E
 conomic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School)
TRIGGER:-PT1H
END:VALARM
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR