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SUMMARY:Constructing the story of 2020 - myths\, miasma\, messaging and mo
 dels - from Cholera to COVID-19 - Danny Dorling (Halford Mackinder Profess
 or of Geography\, Oxford University  )
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20201119T160000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20201119T170000Z
UID:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/efe3bbbe-e7d8-48cb-ae40-36b63ff956ee/
DESCRIPTION:The myth that it was the removal of the handle of the water pu
 mp in Broad street on 8 September 1854 which brought about an end to the c
 holera epidemic is well known among those who study social medicine and po
 pulation health. The disease was thought to spread via miasma\, and lighte
 ning without the sound of thunder was once believed to begin an outbreak. 
 Faced with a new disease we initially flounder.\n\nIn the 166 years since 
 John Snow removed the pump handle\, there have only been five occasions wh
 en mortality suddenly rose by at least an eighth in a year across England 
 and Wales. These were in 1918 (influenza: deaths rose by 23%)\, 1940 (war:
  16%)\, 1929 (cold winter: 16%)\, 1895 (the great freeze: 14%) and in the 
 year to the end of June 2020 (COVID-19: 13%). The relative rise in mortali
 ty in the year to end June 2020 was greater than the Cholera years of 1846
  (12%) or 1849 (10%)\, let alone the smaller rise in 1854 - although of co
 urse if measured by years-of-life lost\, the 2020 rise will be less.\n\nTh
 e first draft of the story of 2020 has been written in the newspapers and 
 academic pre-prints\; but what becomes the final story will depend on whic
 h tales win out to not be seen as myths. To what extent was the timing of 
 the lockdown vital and whose models were most influential or believable? T
 he story I have to tell starts with this: 'By summer 2020 life expectancy 
 in England and Wales for both men and women was back to what it had been a
  decade earlier\, in 2010\, most of that failure was probably due to auste
 rity and mean-mindedness\, but at least a year was lost at the time of the
  2020 pandemic…’\nSpeakers:\nDanny Dorling (Halford Mackinder Professo
 r of Geography\, Oxford University  )
LOCATION:Zoom- See below for registration details
TZID:Europe/London
URL:https://talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/id/efe3bbbe-e7d8-48cb-ae40-36b63ff956ee/
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DESCRIPTION:Talk:Constructing the story of 2020 - myths\, miasma\, messagi
 ng and models - from Cholera to COVID-19 - Danny Dorling (Halford Mackinde
 r Professor of Geography\, Oxford University  )
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