How do provisions of infrastructure projects affect local conflicts in developing countries? Existing studies have exclusively focused on the impacts of foreign investments in civil conflict. Yet we still know very little about whether and how foreign investment in infrastructure constructions by emerging donors such as China affects violent conflicts. Drawing on insights from distributive politics, we argue that the arrival of foreign infrastructure projects is prone to have either a constraining effect for state-based violence or an emboldening effect for non-state-based violence. To test this argument, we introduce a novel, fine-grained, georeferenced data set on the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects and examine whether and how the Chinese projects affect local violence for first administration units on the African continent from 2000 to 2020. Using a matched difference-in-differences approach, we find that, while BRI projects are no more likely to increase the risks of state-based conflicts, there is strong evidence for the emboldening effect that Chinese BRI projects significantly increase non-state conflict at localities. These findings highlight the importance of infrastructure construction by emerging powers and the contrasting impacts on different types of local conflicts.

Chong Chen is an Associate Professor of International Relations in the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University in Beijing. He currently serves as Associate Editor of The Chinese Journal of International Politics. His research interests lie at the intersection of international relations and comparative politics, with a specialization in armed conflict and political violence both within and across state borders.