OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Dynamic factor models have proven to be effective in nowcasting and short-term forecasting of key macroeconomic variables. We explore whether dynamic factor models can also be useful for policy and scenario analyses; for such tasks an accurate model description for the long-term features of the time series are required. In this research we propose some modifications of a dynamic factor analysis to improve the ability of the model to capture the long-term dynamics. We further show how a scenario analysis can be implemented in the context of a dynamic factor model. We present an illustration of measuring the impact on economic variables when climate change policies are implemented, such as a cap on CO2 emissions. This is joint work with Mikkel Bennedsen and Eric Hillebrand, both at CREATES, Aarhus University.
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