The Logic of Provocative Propaganda in the Shadow of Democratic Uprisings: Evidence from Hong Kong’s Anti-Extradition Movement

Where democratic uprisings have gained momentum, some autocracies respond by disseminating propaganda that taunts and mocks their political opponents. Instead of diverting citizens’ attention away from opposition voices, such propaganda directs its rhetoric and public attention toward the anti-regime movement. What is the logic behind it? Dr Yueng proposes a theory of propaganda as provocation. By using provocative propaganda to radicalize protesters in social movements, autocrats can discredit regime opponents and dissuade others from joining forces with the opposition. Thus, provocative propaganda can help delegitimize the opposition and impede democratic uprisings. Dr Yeung experimentally tests the psychological microfoundations in Hong Kong, showing that regime opponents became more angered, disgusted, and supportive of protest violence upon exposure to provocative propaganda. Dr Yeung offers additional evidence by tracing the 2019 Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement, illustrating the strategic dynamics of provocative propaganda and the delegitimizing impact of protest radicalization –consistent with the logic of propaganda as provocation.

Eddy S. F. Yeung is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford and an incoming Assistant Professor in the Bush School of Government & Public Service at Texas A&M University. He studies how political communication and elite strategy shape democratic legitimacy under autocracy and the psychology of conflict escalation and de-escalation, with a focus on East Asia, the United States, and their interactions. A committee member of the Global Research Association of Politics in Hong Kong (GRAPH), he has published in journals such as British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, International Organization, Science, and The Journal of Politics.