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The wobbly economy
Tomohiro Hirano will discuss the his paper (co-authored with Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia University) exploring the standard life-cycle model, showing that under not implausible conditions, multiplicity of momentary equilibria can arise.
Multiplicity of momentary equilibria can generate an infinity of rational expectation equilibria, leading to “wobbly” macro-dynamics; this may occur even when under myopic expectations, there is a unique dynamic path. Nonetheless, one can provide a full characterization of the possible patterns of economic dynamics. In particular, we identify four possible patterns, providing a characterization of the parameter values under which each may occur. Most interestingly, under some configurations of the parameter values, bubble-like macro dynamics occur. We show that a productivity increase can produce a discontinuity in the macroeconomic system. That is, a productivity increase can cause a phase transition from a stable economic boom to an unstable one, leading to a possibility of a large-scale collapse and a stagnation trap. We show under what conditions hysteresis can occur after the collapse of economic booms. Finally, we analyze how government policy can affect the equilibrium path, showing how well-designed government policies can ensure that the rational expectations equilibrium is unique, preventing wobbly macro-dynamics and improving social welfare.
Download the full article from Tomohiro’s website.
Date:
12 November 2019, 13:30
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
INET Oxford Meeting room, 3rd Floor
Speaker:
Prof Tomohiro Hirano (Royal Holloway, University of London)
Organising department:
Institute for New Economic Thinking
Organiser:
Dorothy Nicholas (INET Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
complexity@inet.ox.ac.uk
Booking required?:
Required
Booking email:
complexity@inet.ox.ac.uk
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Susan Mousley
