OxTalks is Changing
OxTalks will soon be transitioning to Oxford Events (full details are available on the Staff Gateway). A two-week publishing freeze is expected in early Hilary to allow all events to be migrated to the new platform. During this period, you will not be able to submit or edit events on OxTalks. The exact freeze dates will be confirmed as soon as possible.
If you have any questions, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Climate Change, Adaptation, and Sovereign Risk
Many emerging markets face high borrowing costs and exposure to natural disasters. How will fiscal constraints affect the adaptation to, and therefore the losses from, climate change in such economies? A sovereign default model augmented with natural disasters and endogenous adaptation predicts that i) climate change increases borrowing costs, ii) adaptation reduces borrowing costs, and iii) default risk constrains adaptation. These economies suffer from an `adaptation trap’: high borrowing costs restrict adaptation, leading to higher losses from disasters and higher borrowing costs in the future. To test these predictions I construct a novel measure of adaptation using text analysis to identify adaptation expenditures in government budgets. Consistent with the model, I document a robust positive relationship between sovereign ratings and adaptation as well as a positive causal effect of cyclone strikes on default risk that is attenuated by adaptation. The sovereign risk- adaptation channel is quantitatively important in the estimated model. In the Caribbean $10\%$ of GDP losses from cyclones are due to default risk. This loss increases with climate change but can be mitigated by debt relief policies.
Date:
24 October 2025, 13:00
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room A
Speaker:
Sarah Duffy (University of Oxford)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Macroeconomics Workshop
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Edward Valenzano
