OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
How does exposure to violence shape political behavior? Does criminal violence push citizens to participate more or less in politics? These questions are becoming more and more important as crime rates rise in many parts of the developing world, but especially in Latin America. We argue that exposure to criminal violence, rather than generating anger or fear, perpetuates political cynicism. As crime increases, citizens update their perceptions of the state’s capacity and willingness to protect them — reducing the stakes of political competition. Studying the effects of exposure to crime is made difficult by the fact that many crimes go unreported, especially in the developing world. Instead of relying on official crime rates, we adapt and apply the methods of multilevel regression post-stratification (MRP) to self-reported victimization in national surveys from Mexico. We first validate the applicability of MRP to this context using census data. Then, we use MRP estimates by municipality to study the effects of crime on turnout. Finally, we use survey-based measures of public attitudes to adjudicate among alternative mechanisms.