Election forecasting
This talk will review the experience of attempts to forecast the 2015 and 2017 British general elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum. I will discuss both my own forecasting methods and those of others. The talk will consider issues with the opinion polls that under-pinned many of the forecasts and the extent to which forecasts still rely on opinion polls or whether other data sources, such as betting markets, are more effective. Most of the talk will be accessible to a general audience but there will be some points of detail on the statistical models.
Date:
12 October 2017, 16:00 (Thursday, 1st week, Michaelmas 2017)
Venue:
Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Venue Details:
Large Lecture Theatre
Speaker:
Stephen Fisher (Associate Professor of Political Sociology, Trinity College, Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
eleni.frangou@csm.ox.ac.uk
Host:
RSS Oxford Local Group (University of Oxford)
Topics:
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Eleni Frangou
