Special CSAE Seminar: Pre-Analysis Plans, A Stocktaking
The evidence-based community has championed the public registration of pre-analysis plans (PAPs) as a solution to the problem of research credibility, but without any evidence that PAPs actually bolster the credibility of research. We analyze a representative sample of 195 pre-analysis plans (PAPs) from the American Economic Association (AEA) and Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) registration platforms to assess whether PAPs are sufficiently clear, precise and comprehensive to be able to achieve their objectives of preventing fishing and reducing the scope for post-hoc adjustment of research hypotheses. We also analyze a subset of 93 PAPs from projects that have resulted in publicly available papers to ascertain how faithfully they adhere to their pre-registered specifications and hypotheses. We find significant variation in the extent to which PAPs are accomplishing the goals they were designed to achieve.
Date: 5 November 2019, 4:30 (Tuesday, 4th week, Michaelmas 2019)
Venue: Blavatnik School of Government, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter OX2 6GG
Venue Details: Seminar Room 4
Speaker: George Ofosu (London School of Economics)
Organising department: Department of Economics
Organisers: Amma Panin (Nuffield College), Julien Labonne (Blavatnik School of Government), Simon Quinn (Department of Economics, University of Oxford), Michael Koelle (Pembroke College), Emma Riley (Department of Economics, University of Oxford), Margaryta Klymak (Department of International Development), Rossa O'Keeffe-O'Donovan (Nuffield College)
Organiser contact email address: csae.conference@economics.ox.ac.uk
Part of: CSAE Special Seminars
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Public
Editor: Fiona Morsia