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How to End a Nuclear War: Deterrence and Provocation in War Termination
Is nuclear conflict manageable, or does any use of nuclear weapons inexorably push states toward escalation? And how do these dynamics differ between nuclear- and conventional-armed attacks? Many theorists have considered these questions, but empirically answering them is difficult given the absence of historical data. We address this challenge by fielding a pre-registered experimental survey of American adults designed around a series of hypothetical vignettes featuring attacks on the United States. The vignettes vary in the targets struck (conventional military installations, nuclear facilities, or civilian facilities) and the means of attack (conventional munitions or nuclear weapons). We then measure preferences over concession versus retaliation, the form and intensity of retaliation (including nuclear options), and respondents’ stated reasons for and against nuclear use. To probe mechanisms, we capture emotional reactions and broader situational assessments using both closed-ended measures and free-response prompts. By assessing the public’s response to various attacks across a range of targets, our study identifies what actions are more (less) likely to generate public pressure for (de)escalation. And by probing the emotional reactions and logic evinced by respondents, our study offers potential insights into the affective microfoundations underlying nuclear conflict dynamics.
Dr Lauren Sukin is the John G. Winant Associate Professor in US Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford, as well as a Professorial Fellow in Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. Dr Sukin’s research examines historical and contemporary challenges in international security, focusing particularly on the role of technology—including nuclear weapons—in alliances. Dr Sukin is an Affiliate at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), a Nonresident Scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and a Fellow at Charles University’s Peace Research Centre Prague. She holds a PhD and MA from the Department of Political Science at Stanford University and ABs in political science and literary arts from Brown University.
Dr Sam Seitz is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations and a Deterrence Futures Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. He was previously a Stanton Nuclear Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT, where he was affiliated with the Security Studies Program. De Seitz’ work primarily concerns the causes and consequences of states’ military procurement choices and the effect of these choices on alliance politics. He is especially interested in the way that procurement choices relate to issues of nuclear strategy and the role that status and prestige concerns play in shaping military force postures.
Date:
10 March 2026, 16:00
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Lecture Theatre
Speakers:
Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford),
Sam Seitz (University of Oxford)
Organising department:
Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR)
Organiser:
Changing Character of War Centre (CCW)
Organiser contact email address:
info@ccw.ox.ac.uk
Part of:
Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre Seminar Series
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Elizabeth Robson
