The transmission of financial shocks and economic dynamics: An endogenous regime switching approach

This seminar will take place on Zoom

We investigate the effect of financial shocks on economic dynamics. To that end we develop an endogenous regime-switching structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities. First, we allow for the transition probabilities to be dependent on the state of the economy, and thereby to be time-varying. Second, we facilitate rather general, non-recursive structural identification restrictions. Third, we allow the identification restrictions to differ across regimes. We employ a model with conventional and unconventional monetary policy. In the context of that model we explore what is driving regime switches and how the transmission of financial shocks differs across regimes. We aim to shed light on the role of leverage of banks for the transmission of financial shocks.