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Relative Price Shocks and Inflation
Inflation is determined by interaction between monetary policy and real factors, including shocks to supply and demand for different components of the consumption basket. We use a 15-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the contributions to inflation from sectoral supply and demand shocks, monetary policy shocks, and aggregate real shocks. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood on U.S. data from 1995 through 2019, when the policy regime appeared to be stable. Decomposing the 2012-2019 inflation shortfall, and its surge starting in 2021, we find that sectoral shocks were major contributors to the inflation deviations from target.
Date:
17 November 2025, 14:15
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room G
Speaker:
Francisco Ruge-Murcia (McGill University)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Macroeconomics Seminar
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Edward Valenzano
