OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
We introduce a firm-level exposure to macroeconomic shocks derived from 10K Risk Factors’ ability to predict shock-related market surprises and illustrate its application to COVID-19. It has significant explanatory power for returns in- and out-of-sample; contains all relevant information for future real outcomes present in surprises; and can be decomposed into interpretable word groupings that collectively account for real outcomes. These highlight numerous specific channels through which COVID-19 generated negative and positive real effects, and how these are distributed across firms. By reflecting information on trading partners, technology adoption, and business models, text explains how COVID-19 created long-lasting firm heterogeneity.
