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Naval Strategy in the Pacific: Balancing not Challenging China
Alarmism persists over a growing Chinese Navy, yet Chinese naval strategy suggests defence rather than offence. The root of the problem is inferring too much from Beijing’s naval building programme. Simple capability analysis is too scientific – there is no room for analysis of Chinese maritime intent amidst counting new hulls and long-range missiles. If the West overreacts to a growing Chinese Navy, the risk of a damaging arms race in the Western Pacific increases. Ever more capable warships operating in the confined waters of the East and South China Sea risk a war begun by miscalculation. In this talk, Lt Cdr Ward will reprise his theme of the ‘the mirroring fallacy’, first described at a CCW lunchtime lecture in Trinity Term 2024. Now informed by operational experience from 2025, Andrew will show that inferring Chinese naval intent as a mirror of Western naval intent is fallacious.
Andrew Ward was the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022. In 2025 Andrew sailed with the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales on deployment to the Asia-Pacific region.
Date:
24 February 2026, 16:15
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Speaker:
Lt Cdr Andrew Ward (CCW & Royal Navy)
Organising department:
Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR)
Organiser:
Changing Character of War Centre (CCW)
Organiser contact email address:
info@ccw.ox.ac.uk
Part of:
Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre Seminar Series
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Elizabeth Robson
