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Will Brexit still matter in the upcoming general election, and if so, how? The 2019 general election marked a high watermark in the realignment of the electorate around the Leave and Remain sides of the EU referendum. Since then, however, politicians resist talking about Brexit, and new issues and embarrassments for the government have shaped the political agenda: the Covid 19 pandemic, parties in Downing Street, the Liz Truss mini-budget, and the cost-of-living crisis. Hear from the co-director of the British Election Study (BES) on why Brexit came to structure political affiliations in Britain, whether the post-2019 political context has affected Leavers and Remainers equally, and how party competition has contributed to the existence and persistence of the Brexit realignment to date. Drawing on recent work with Geoffrey Evans, Dan Snow and other BES members, Professor Green will argue that the 2024 general election is likely to be both a ‘tide’ election and a ‘tribes’ election. Many Leavers may well cross over to Labour, but Brexit loyalties will still shape voting for the major parties for some time.
