OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
The substitution of minerals for tropical crops in exports were the game-changer in the economic specialisation patterns of post-colonial Africa. However, compared to economic historical research on the 19th century commercial transition, the long-term evolution and consequences of Africa’s ‘mineral transition’ remain poorly understood. Using new annual data on all the major export commodities for each African country 1890-2022 we study Africa’s mineral transition in a long-term perspective. Exploiting the fact that about half of African countries south of the Sahara have experienced this transition, while the other half retained its original crop-based export package, we analyse three critical dimensions of this transition: (i) long-term prices and terms-of-trade; (ii) economic growth, macro-economic stability and poverty reduction; (iii) crowding out: did mineral export revenues lead to commercial agricultural neglect (e.g. due to declining fiscal dependence), or were mineral revenues instead used to revitalize the agricultural sector? Our evidence supports a mixed narrative that emphasises both missed opportunities of rural development and pro-poor growth, but also points to the gloomy counterfactual of development in non-mineral economies.