PSI seminar: 'Globalization, global change and emerging infectious diseases' presented by Professor John Drake
This talk is for PSI staff and students. Members of the University who are not at the PSI are welcome to join, but please contact us beforehand to let us know (events.psi@ndm.ox.ac.uk).
We are delighted to welcome Professor John Drake, Regents Professor of Ecology at the University. Professor Drake is a biological modeler and data scientist specializing in the dynamics of zoonotic diseases, the macroecology of emerging infections, and the interdisciplinary integration of social science, natural science, and mathematical theory. In this seminar, he will present ‘Globalization, Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases,’ exploring how global forces such as economic integration, urbanisation and climate disruption shapes the emergence and spread of novel pathogens.

The seminar will be chaired by Luca Ferretti and will take place on Tuesday 18 November, from 17:00 to 18:00, in the Oxford Martin School lecture theatre, University of Oxford. Following the seminar, there will be a drinks reception and an opportunity to network with all attendees.

Abstract
Emerging infectious diseases are not random shocks to human societies, but recurrent features of a world increasingly shaped by globalization and global change. Over the past century, pandemics such as influenza, HIV/AIDS, Ebola, and COVID-19 have revealed how economic integration, rapid urbanization, climate disruption, and ecological transformation create structural conditions for novel pathogens to appear and spread. This lecture traces the historical record of major twentieth- and twenty-first-century pandemics to document not just the immediate health impacts of emerging diseases, but also their social and economic consequences. Building on this evidence, I introduce the “globalization grid,” a framework that maps the flows of goods and services, capital, people, and ideas across political, economic, and cultural domains. This perspective highlights the multiple, interacting pathways through which globalization influences disease emergence, from deforestation and agricultural intensification to global supply chains, labor mobility, and international governance. By situating pandemics within these broader systemic processes, we can better understand why certain pathogens achieve global reach and why their impacts are so unevenly distributed. The challenge for the future is to design institutions and interventions that anticipate these dynamics, strengthening resilience before the next pandemic emerges.

Biography
John Drake is a Regents Professor of Ecology at the Odum School of Ecology and Director of the Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID) at the University of Georgia. His research combines mathematical modeling and data analysis to study the dynamics of zoonotic diseases, the macroecology of emerging infections, and the interdisciplinary integration of social, natural, and mathematical sciences. He has applied spatial interaction and compartmental models to a wide range of systems, including the spread of White-nose syndrome in North American bats, the 2013–2015 West African Ebola epidemic, the evolutionary dynamics of influenza, and the early transmission patterns of COVID-19. His current research focuses on understanding the global forces driving disease emergence and advancing infectious disease intelligence, leveraging real-time data to inform decision-making for individuals, institutions, and policymakers during outbreaks of emerging pathogens.
Date: 18 November 2025, 17:00
Venue: Hybrid event. MS Teams or Oxford Martin School - lecture theatre Address: Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford 34 Broad Street Oxford OX1 3BD
Speaker: Professor John Drake (Oliver Smithies Visiting Fellow)
Organisers: James Hay (Wellcome Trust Early Career Fellow), Ksenia Ananyeva (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address: events.psi@ndm.ox.ac.uk
Host: Pandemic Sciences Institute
Part of: Pandemic Sciences Institute seminar series
Booking required?: Required
Booking url: https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=G96VzPWXk0-0uv5ouFLPkfqJsIz1OHtImXkbS9R4tRRUOU9YTVRDSTRYQ1Y2ODQ1NDhNMjZVNjZTUy4u
Cost: Free
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Ksenia Ananyeva