Health scenarios for an ageing population

The seminar will look at different models for projecting future health scenarios in the UK and attempt to identify some key pressure points for health and social care services. Although projections models vary a great deal according to the outcome of interest and they all emphasise uncertainty (many known unknowns), they tend to converge on one main conclusion: there is good evidence of improving health in the older population, but the rates of improvement are generally insufficient to offset the increase in demand that seems likely to result from the increasing size of the older population, especially the older-old. Of particular interest in this case are the implications for hospital care as well as social care.