The International Transmission of Democratic Values: Evidence from African Migration to Europe

This paper investigates the effect of rising anti-immigrant sentiment in European democratic host countries on support for democracy in African migrants’ origin communities. We propose a novel methodology to estimate migration stocks from sub-national areas of origin to any possible country in the world based on Google trends data. We use these data alongside measures of anti-immigrant sentiment at destination to study origin communities exposure to anti-immigrant sentiment. Consistent with a model of Bayesian learning, we show that exposure to greater anti- immigrant sentiment led to a deterioration in support for democracy among African citizens and the effect is concentrated in non-democratic countries.. We conclude that rising anti-immigrant sentiment in Western democracies has the potential to harm democratic progress in Africa.