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The causal effect of education on political preferences: evidence from the UK's higher education expansion
In the UK, voting patterns in elections are increasingly characterised by division along education lines rather than by other demographic or economic variables (bar age). But does this reflect a causal relationship between education and party support? In this paper we estimate the causal effect of education on political preferences exploiting a large expansion in the supply of higher education in the UK as a result of the Further and Higher Education Act (1992). We use this exogenous policy change to instrument years of schooling and find that an additional year of (higher) education decreases the likelihood of voting for the right-of-centre Conservative party by 8.4 percentage points, and decreased the probability of voting ‘Leave’ in the 2016 Brexit referendum by 4.9pp.
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Date:
9 February 2026, 12:45
Venue:
15 Norham Gardens, 15 Norham Gardens OX2 6PY
Venue Details:
Seminar Room C (note change from usual room) and online
Speaker:
Professor Matt Dickson (University of Bath)
Organising department:
Department of Education
Part of:
Quantitative Methods Hub Seminars
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editors:
Hannah Freeman,
Heather Sherkunov,
Kristina Khoo,
Shaena Sinclair
