Real estate and the great crisis: Lessons for macro-prudential policy

Credit conditions have caused real estate booms and busts, owing to an under-pricing of credit risk aided by regulatory arbitrage and shadow financing. Across countries, real estate price and credit bubbles have reflected not only inelastic land supply and thin trading, but also the amplification of shocks via backward-looking price expectations and financing based on distorted prices. Macro-prudential lessons from the Great Crisis include preventing excess real estate financing and limiting the amplification and correlation of risks. Nonetheless, the costs and benefits of recent regulations require re-evaluation amid an on-going need to address correlated risks from shadow financing and securitization.