OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
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Using measures of monetary policy surprises identified from the Overnight Indexed Swap market in India, this paper documents heterogeneity in the effects of monetary policy surprises on scheduled and unscheduled announcement dates. Higher interest rates on scheduled announcement dates lower stock prices, reduce forecasted and actual output as well as inflation. In contrast, monetary policy surprises on unscheduled announcement dates are predictable by past macroeconomic conditions, frequently coincide with macroeconomic data releases, raise stock prices, output and inflation on impact. These results are consistent with less precise identification of exogenous changes in monetary policy on unscheduled announcement dates compared to scheduled announcement dates. Monetary policy transmission in India, identified using monetary policy surprises from scheduled announcement dates, is found to be significantly stronger than previously documented.
