Rapid change sums up the Arctic of today, with significant implications for branding Canada. Climate change produces a level of interest in the region from a widening range of actors and confronts Canada with new challenges. The present study uses a forecasting model to assess the likely outcomes, under current conditions, across a range of substantively important issues in the Arctic. The work unfolds in four further stages. First, a forecasting model is introduced and linked to the present context. The second stage presents the expert-generated data used to forecast the future. Third, forecasts are produced and assessed in terms of implications for existing policy in areas ranging from search and rescue to transit of the Northwest Passage. The fourth and final stage offers conclusions about the Canadian brand and suggests directions for future research.

Professor James’ teaching and research interests are in the fields of International Relations (foreign policy analysis and security studies); Comparative Politics (Canadian politics); Rational Choice (collective action, expected utility and game theory); and Empirical Methods (research design and statistics). His most recent books focus on Canadian Studies, ethnic conflict and political realism.