Formation of COVID-19 policy must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioural responses. Data uncertainties limit knowledge of the trajectory of the pandemic and the effectiveness of treatments. Data and modelling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. Professor Manski will cover work quantifying basic data uncertainties and explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modelling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. He will also discuss approaches for policy choice that face up to uncertainty and specifically suggest adaptive policy diversification. Possible applications of adaptive diversification include choice between suppression and mitigation strategies and choice of a process to allocate vaccines.

Register here: oxford.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/professor-charles-manski-talk-wednesday-11th-november-202