HERC Seminar: Forming COVID-19 Policy Under Uncertainty

Formation of COVID-19 policy must cope with substantial uncertainties about the nature of the disease, the dynamics of transmission, and behavioural responses. Data uncertainties limit knowledge of the trajectory of the pandemic and the effectiveness of treatments. Data and modelling uncertainties limit our ability to predict the impacts of alternative policies. Professor Manski will cover work quantifying basic data uncertainties and explain why current epidemiological and macroeconomic modelling cannot deliver realistically optimal policy. He will also discuss approaches for policy choice that face up to uncertainty and specifically suggest adaptive policy diversification. Possible applications of adaptive diversification include choice between suppression and mitigation strategies and choice of a process to allocate vaccines.

Date: 11 November 2020, 16:00 (Wednesday, 5th week, Michaelmas 2020)
Venue: Venue to be announced
Speaker: Professor Charles Manski (Northwestern University)
Organising department: Nuffield Department of Population Health
Organiser: Graham Bagley (University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Population Health)
Part of: Population Health Seminars
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
This talk features in the following public collections:
- Research and Public Policy
Editor: Hannah Freeman