The Unpredictability of Life Outcomes
Please email LCDS.Office@demography.ox.ac.uk for in person and online attendance
Researchers have long theorised about the processes through which family background and childhood experiences shape life outcomes. However, statistical models that use data on family background and childhood experiences to predict life outcomes often have poor predictive performance. In this talk, we present results from three interrelated studies of the predictability of life outcomes: a scientific mass collaboration involving hundreds of participants, a high-throughput study using hundreds of machine learning pipelines to predict hundreds of life outcomes, and a qualitative study involving in-depth interviews with 40 families. Collectively these studies help to assess and understand the limits to predictability of life outcomes, which has implications for social science theory and for algorithmic decision-making in high-stakes settings.
Date: 3 April 2023, 14:15 (Monday, -2nd week, Trinity 2023)
Venue: Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Venue Details: Large Lecture Room or online
Speaker: Professor Matthew Salganik (Princeton University)
Organising department: Department of Sociology
Organiser: Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address: LCDS.Office@demography.ox.ac.uk
Hosts: Bettina Szilvasi (University of Oxford), Prof. Melinda Mills (University of Oxford)
Booking required?: Required
Booking email: LCDS.Office@demography.ox.ac.uk
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Bradley Hall-Smith