OxTalks is Changing
OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Risky Business Cycles
We isolate the main driver of equity risk premium fluctuations in the data, and show that this same shock also explains a large fraction of the business-cycle comovements of output, consumption, employment, and investment. Recessions associated with this shock are characterized by a reallocation away from full-time labor positions, and towards part-time and flexible contract workers. We explain the data using a novel real model where fluctuations in risk appetite lead to a shift from riskier to safer factors of production. Since safer factors carry lower marginal products – a form of real risk premium – this “flight-to-safety” in production input demand precipitates a broad macroeconomic contraction.
Date:
3 June 2025, 13:15
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room A
Speaker:
Ryan Chahrour (Cornell University)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Macroeconomics Seminar
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Edward Valenzano
