The Gravity of Violence -- Embedding Conflicts in Quantitative Spatial Models (Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, Mathias Thoenig)
This paper presents a generic approach for estimating and simulating a quantitative model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical framework, suited for disciplining sub-national and international data, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way: A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a gravity equation of violence. Looking at sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1997 to 2022, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is used to quantify counterfactual policy interventions that aim at promoting development in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive.
Date: 27 April 2023, 13:00 (Thursday, 1st week, Trinity 2023)
Venue: Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details: Room A or https://zoom.us/j/94428672489?pwd=c3N3a1FTRUpQcDJaVld4Tll5ekRzUT09
Speaker: Thierry Mayer (Sciences Po)
Organising department: Department of Economics
Part of: Department of Economics Seminar
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editors: Emma Heritage, Daria Ihnatenko