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Shifting support: Western states, the UN, and local perceptions in conflict zones
This paper examines how populations in conflict zones perceive foreign military interventions, using Mali as a case study. Based on an original survey experiment (N = 1,594), it compares support for interventions led by the UN, ECOWAS, France, and Russia, focusing on how actor identity, perceived effectiveness, and integrity shape preferences. Findings challenge common assumptions: states—especially non-Western ones like Russia—often attract more support than international organizations; effectiveness raises support across all actors; and misconduct erodes approval, particularly for otherwise trusted interveners. The study highlights the importance of local perspectives for understanding legitimacy and warns Western states not to assume preferred-partner status in an era of multipolar competition and declining UN reach.
Date:
21 October 2025, 17:00
Venue:
St Antony's College - North Site
Venue Details:
Seminar Room, European Studies Centre, 70 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HR
Speaker:
Stefano Costalli (University of Florence)
Organising department:
European Studies Centre
Organiser:
Julie Adams (St Antony's College, University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
julie.adams@sant.ox.ac.uk
Host:
Federica Genovese (St Antony’s College, Oxford)
Part of:
European Studies Seminar
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Julie Adams
