OxTalks will soon be transitioning to Oxford Events (full details are available on the Staff Gateway). A two-week publishing freeze is expected in early Hilary to allow all events to be migrated to the new platform. During this period, you will not be able to submit or edit events on OxTalks. The exact freeze dates will be confirmed as soon as possible.
If you have any questions, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Emerging market interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that a baseline model with endogenous sovereign default risk can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, the model features a key non-linearity that allows it to replicate the stochastic volatility of interest rate spreads and its comovement with other important economic variables. Volatility correlates positively with the level of the spreads and the trade balance, negatively with output and consumption.
Paper available here: www.dropbox.com/s/3c9wcvssh4×3smu/2020807_default_volty_EM2.pdf?dl=0
