What's the Half-Life of the Economic Vote? (About a Year and a Half)
Sandwich Lunch provided
Economic voting theory assumes that voters focus their attention on the recent past. But testing this assumption is difficult and past research remains inconclusive. I estimate voters’ economic time frames using a new model that measures the economic vote and voter myopia at the same time. I show that voter myopia is real and that after around a year and a half, economic voting affects half in size. After five years, they approach zero. My findings have positive implications. Though they are myopic, voters appear able to hold governments accountable for economic management over the course of their tenure.
Date: 10 March 2023, 13:00 (Friday, 8th week, Hilary 2023)
Venue: Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details: Seminary Room C
Speaker: Jack Bailey (University of Manchester)
Organising department: Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR)
Organisers: Christine Sheldon (University of Oxford), Prof Lenka Bustikova (University of Oxford), Marta Antonetti (University of Oxford), Zack Grant (University of Oxford), Professor Petra Schleiter (University of Oxford)
Part of: Politics Research Colloquium
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editors: Helen Morley, Rebecca Freeman, Joby Mullens, Daniel Burton