From population to person: Counterfactual risk prediction
The Lecture will be held at the Department of Statistics and on Zoom.
Clinical risk prediction models enable predictions of a person’s risk of an outcome (e.g. mortality) given their observed characteristics. It is often of interest to use risk predictions to inform whether a person should initiate a particular treatment. However, when standard clinical prediction models are developed in a population in which patients follow a mix of treatment strategies, they are unsuitable for informing treatment decisions. Counterfactual risk predictions aim to address this problem – they are estimates of what a person’s risk would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics that are also predictive of the outcome.
Causal inference methods typically focus on estimating population average treatment effects. In this talk I will discuss how causal inference methods can be used for individual counterfactual risk prediction using longitudinal observational data on treatment use, patient characteristics and a time-to-event outcome. An essential step in development and reporting of prediction models is to validate their performance. I will discuss the challenges of this, and describe some new methods for assessing the predictive performance of counterfactual risk prediction.

In a motivating example, we are interested in counterfactual risk predictions for mortality in patients awaiting a liver transplant under the strategies of receiving or not receiving a transplant. I will illustrate the methods using data from the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Patients.
Date: 1 December 2022, 15:30 (Thursday, 8th week, Michaelmas 2022)
Venue: 24-29 St Giles', 24-29 St Giles' OX1 3LB
Venue Details: Large Lecture Theatre, Department of Statistics
Speaker: Professor Ruth Keogh (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Organising department: Department of Statistics
Organisers: Professor Christl Donnelly (University of Oxford), Beverley Lane (Department of Statistics, University of Oxford)
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Hosts: Professor Christl Donnelly (University of Oxford), Professor Simon Myers (University of Oxford)
Part of: Annual: Corcoran Memorial Lecture
Booking required?: Required
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Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Beverley Lane