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From population to person: Counterfactual risk prediction
The Lecture will be held at the Department of Statistics and on Zoom.
Clinical risk prediction models enable predictions of a person’s risk of an outcome (e.g. mortality) given their observed characteristics. It is often of interest to use risk predictions to inform whether a person should initiate a particular treatment. However, when standard clinical prediction models are developed in a population in which patients follow a mix of treatment strategies, they are unsuitable for informing treatment decisions. Counterfactual risk predictions aim to address this problem – they are estimates of what a person’s risk would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics that are also predictive of the outcome.
Causal inference methods typically focus on estimating population average treatment effects. In this talk I will discuss how causal inference methods can be used for individual counterfactual risk prediction using longitudinal observational data on treatment use, patient characteristics and a time-to-event outcome. An essential step in development and reporting of prediction models is to validate their performance. I will discuss the challenges of this, and describe some new methods for assessing the predictive performance of counterfactual risk prediction.
In a motivating example, we are interested in counterfactual risk predictions for mortality in patients awaiting a liver transplant under the strategies of receiving or not receiving a transplant. I will illustrate the methods using data from the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Patients.
Date:
1 December 2022, 15:30
Venue:
24-29 St Giles', 24-29 St Giles' OX1 3LB
Venue Details:
Large Lecture Theatre, Department of Statistics
Speaker:
Professor Ruth Keogh (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Organising department:
Department of Statistics
Organisers:
Professor Christl Donnelly (University of Oxford),
Beverley Lane (Department of Statistics, University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
events@stats.ox.ac.uk
Hosts:
Professor Christl Donnelly (University of Oxford),
Professor Simon Myers (University of Oxford)
Part of:
Annual: Corcoran Memorial Lecture
Booking required?:
Required
Booking url:
https://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/events/corcoran-memorial-lecture-2022
Booking email:
events@stats.ox.ac.uk
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Beverley Lane
