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Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism
We analyse political competition when the source of political conict stems from groups that have di¤erent misspecied stochastic models of how policies a¤ect outcomes. We focus on groups that di¤er in the simplicity of their model of the world; a “simple” group,that believes that only a subset of policy instruments a¤ect outcomes, competes with another group that believes a wider range of policy instruments matter. Whoever wins the election chooses that periods policies. Upon observing the policy outcomes, both groups update the weight they place on the di¤erent policy instruments, albeit within the connes of their model. We show that in all steady state equilibria the simple group is always in power with a strictly positive probability. Moreover, it always espouses policies that are more extreme compared to those of the other group, on all policy instruments it considers.
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Date:
24 January 2020, 14:15
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room A
Speaker:
Gilat Levy (London School of Economics and Political Science)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Nuffield Economic Theory Seminar
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Melis Clark
