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Mortality impacts of rainfall and sea level rise
Bio: Tom Bearpark is a PhD candidate in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy, advised by Professor Michael Oppenheimer. Tom is an interdisciplinary environmental economist who develops and applies statistical methods to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change. His dissertation research includes an econometric study of the mortality consequences of urban flooding in Mumbai, an interdisciplinary comparison of approaches to modelling climate-driven migration, and a methodological paper proposing new criteria for selecting time controls in climate impact studies.
Before coming to Princeton, Tom was a pre-doctoral fellow at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, and worked for two years as an economist at the UK government’s energy regulator. He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics and Philosophy from the London School of Economics, and an MPhil in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge.
Abstract: Rainfall and flooding frequently disrupt the lives of urban residents worldwide, posing significant public health risks. Rapid urbanisation is exposing larger and more vulnerable populations to flooding, while climate change intensifies rainfall patterns and rising sea levels impair drainage systems. Despite the growing recognition and urgency of these hazards, the health impacts of rainfall remain poorly understood, and those of sea level rise are entirely unquantified. Here, we estimate the mortality consequences of rainfall in one of the world’s largest cities – Mumbai, India. We integrate high-resolution data on rainfall, tides, and mortality, to analyse how unmanaged rainfall and its interaction with tidal dynamics contribute to urban health risks. We find that rainfall causes more than 8% of Mumbai’s deaths during the monsoon season, and that more than 80% of this burden is borne by slum-residents. Children face the biggest increase in mortality risk from rainfall, and women face a greater risk than men. Additionally, we demonstrate that mortality risk from rainfall increases sharply during high tides and use this relationship to evaluate how rising sea levels could amplify rainfall-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation. Our findings reveal that the mortality impacts of rainfall are an order of magnitude larger than is documented by official statistics, highlighting the urgent need for investment in improved drainage, sanitation, and waste management infrastructure.
Join the meeting online: shorturl.fm/HRHIm
Date:
10 March 2026, 13:00
Venue:
Richard Doll Building, Old Road Campus OX3 7LF
Venue Details:
Lecture Theatre
Speaker:
Tom Bearpark (Princeton University)
Organising department:
Nuffield Department of Population Health
Organisers:
Joanna Blaszczyk (NDPH, University of Oxford),
Sam Morris (NDPH, University of Oxford),
Michael Turner (NDPH, University of Oxford),
Dr Michelle Goonasekera (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
Michelle.Goonasekera@ndph.ox.ac.uk
Part of:
Richard Doll Seminars
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Joanna Blaszczyk
