Fertility projection has long been of interest to demographers because population projection based on the cohort component method requires future fertility rates. However, past studies have proved the difficulties of fertility projection, and it remains a significant challenge.
The first half of this talk provides a brief overview of the fertility projection that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan (IPSS) conducts. In East Asian societies where the prevalence of births outside of marriage is remarkably low, cohort total fertility rates can be disaggregated into three components: (1) the proportion of ever marrying, (2) completed marital fertility, and (3) the impacts of divorce and remarriage. This decomposition shows the important role of marriage in determining the cohort fertility rates in Japan. Thus, it is useful to understand the trends in union formation and dissolution to project fertility rates.
The second half of this talk presents the trends and socioeconomic differentials in remarriage. Our empirical findings show that the hazard of remarriage after divorce has been declining. We also found pronounced gender differences in remarriage, with a higher propensity to get remarried among men. The educational difference in remarriage has been growing among Japanese men, which is consistent with the pattern of ““diverging destinies”“ (McLanahan 2004).