Join us on 11 June for the talk:

Violent Crime and Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Macroeconomic Perspective

Featuring Dr Raphael Espinoza, Mission Chief for Uruguay and Deputy Division Chief at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Violent crime and insecurity remain major barriers to prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Although the region holds just 8% of the world’s population, it accounts for nearly one-third of global homicides.

This talk presents new findings on the complex interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic outcomes:

Municipal-level data reveals that national crime statistics often mask vast internal disparities. Municipalities with 10% higher homicide rates experience, on average, 4% lower economic activity.

A new measure of insecurity—based on the share of crime-related news—is also shown to correlate with reduced industrial production.

Using firm-level data, the analysis estimates that the direct cost of crime to businesses reaches about 7% of annual sales, and is significantly higher where gangs and drug-trafficking organisations are active.

Cross-country analysis shows that in Latin America (but not elsewhere), homicide rates rise during periods of negative growth, high inflation, or worsening inequality—highlighting a mutually reinforcing link between crime and societal distrust.