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Ancestral Origins of Environmental (in)attention
How does the climatic experience of previous generations affect today’s assessment of the importance of environmental concerns? We study this question by bringing together broad empirical evidence —spanning individual survey responses and group-level cultural records— with a new theory of costly environmental attention shaped by evolutionary cultural transmission across generations. We show that the intensity of ancestral climate anomalies leaves a persistent imprint on the perceived stakes of accounting for environmental considerations in decision-making (the subjective value of attention). The relationship is U-shaped: descendants of groups who faced more stable or more volatile climates report a higher importance of environmental considerations, with a dip at intermediate variability. Environmental content in folklore displays the same U-shape, consistent with a cultural-transmission channel linking ancestral experience to contemporary perceptions. We develop a general model in which environmental attention is a costly, endogenous choice made before climate conditions are realised, and perceptions of its stakes evolve through intergenerational transmission shaped by differential success. Because attention is chosen ex ante, evolutionary pressure is too imprecise to select for accurate perceptions state-by-state: it only disciplines perceptions through average realised payoffs under the climate distribution a group experiences, generating persistence in perceived stakes across generations. Finally, when attention serves two functions—using typical conditions effectively and protecting against extreme events—the model rationalises the U-shaped dependence of perceived stakes on ancestral climate variability.
Date:
10 March 2026, 12:45
Venue:
Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Speaker:
César Barilla (University of Oxford)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Economic Theory Workshop
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editor:
Edward Valenzano
