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Spatial Ecology of War and Peace: Perspective of Global Networked Tipping Dynamics
See more information at https://metrics-and-models.github.io/!
War and human flourishing exhibits strong spatial bias across geographical scales. Geography matters in conflict and cooperation but no mathematical framework thus far ties them together at the global scale. Here, we show that simple network models can explain the spatial patterns of conflict and cooperation with accuracy and robustness, reinforced and explained by simple agent-based-modeling. We go on in our second piece of work to add tipping dynamics to understand how cascades can happen or be prevented. This was then linked to several branching projects: (i) how will future climate change and migration affect the model (MET Office), and (ii) how can we model causal latent spaces in climate change and conflict. More generally, I am interested in how to better understand networked tipping dynamics and how it contributes to our understanding of global tipping dynamics in climate-society-technology ecosystems in the Tipping Points Report.
Date:
19 November 2025, 14:00
Venue:
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Speaker:
Weisi Guo (Centre for Autonomous and Cyber-Physical Systems, Cranfield University)
Organising department:
Nuffield Department of Population Health
Organiser:
Metrics and Models Management Group (University of Oxford)
Organiser contact email address:
metrics_and_models_mgmt@maillist.ox.ac.uk
Part of:
Metrics and Models
Booking required?:
Not required
Booking url:
https://metrics-and-models.github.io/
Booking email:
metrics_and_models-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk
Audience:
Public
Editor:
Richard Rahal
