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Fertility Responses to Reductions in Mortality: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from 20th Century America
Abstract:
The introduction of the first antibiotics in the United States in 1937 led to sharp drops in child mortality from pneumonia and maternal mortality from puerperal sepsis. We leverage this plausibly exogenous medical innovation to examine fertility responses among women giving birth in this era. The decline in pneumonia mortality led women to have fewer children overall, with fewer women having three or more children, and a larger share remaining childless. We present a new theory of the extensive margin response in terms of child mortality decline decreasing the time women need to achieve their target number of children. This prompts fertility delay and labor market entry which, coupled with wage or fecundity shocks, can result in childlessness. We show that reductions in child mortality increased women’s labor force participation, improved their occupational status and reduced their chances of ever having married. Maternal mortality decline created opposing effects on all of these outcomes.
Date:
8 November 2017, 17:00
Venue:
Nuffield College, New Road OX1 1NF
Venue Details:
Brock Room
Speaker:
Selma Walther (University of Warwick)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Postdoctoral Seminar
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editors:
Erin Saunders,
Anne Pouliquen
