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Climate change and the erosion of democratic norms are two of the most pressing global challenges. This paper establishes a link between individuals’ support for democracy and extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change and where democratic norms are fragile. I analyze this relationship using Afrobarometer data on support for democracy from 2002 to 2015, covering 129,002 individuals across 16 countries, combined with granular weather data from 1960 to 2015 at a 27km × 27km grid cell resolution. I find that exposure to drought reduces support for democracy by 2.56% to 5.28%, but this effect is limited to individuals living in established democracies. I further explore how this weakening of democratic norms is linked to exposure to non-democratic governance systems, proxied by proximity to development projects funded by technocratic (World Bank) or autocratic (China) regimes. I find that the effect of droughts on support for democracy is significant only for individuals exposed to non-democratic systems. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that this reduction in support for democracy is associated with fewer riots and conflict events. These findings highlight the political costs of climate change in developing countries.
