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A False Sense of Security: The Impact of Forecast Uncertainty on Hurricane Damages
Paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3070154
Abstract:
We seek to identify the impact of forecast uncertainty using damages from hurricane strikes where feedback is less of a concern. We propose a theoretical framework in which uncertainty can have an economic impact when operating through beliefs about adaptation. To test this, we embed ex-post forecast uncertainty into a general model of hurricane damages and use general-to-specific model selection methods to simplify. We find that a 1 percent increase in the ex-post forecast error shock is associated with a 0.25-0.5 percent increase in damages. This implies a fall in local economic growth by 0.11-0.23 percentage points.
Date:
29 January 2018, 12:00
Venue:
Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details:
Seminar Room B
Speaker:
Andrew Martinez (University of Oxford)
Organising department:
Department of Economics
Part of:
Postdoc & DPhil Workshop
Booking required?:
Not required
Audience:
Members of the University only
Editors:
Erin Saunders,
Anne Pouliquen
