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Meeting ID: 971 5609 9278 Passcode: 324627

Abstract: Does extreme weather decrease political trust in developing contexts? Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and straining government responsiveness, particularly in Global South democracies, who face constraints on capacity. Conventional wisdom posits that citizens are both retrospective and attentive, and that citizens’ trust in politics ought to depend on the government’s capability to deliver assistance to those affected by adverse weather events. But this model struggles to account for empirical patterns in Global South countries, and overlooks the consequences of high socioeconomic inequality. Addressing these shortfalls, I argue extreme weather leads to political disaffection within specific socioeconomic strata, driven by normalized non-responsiveness and clientelistic politics impacting the less affluent. I empirically examine this theory with public opinion data from over 12,000 individuals in Mexico and Brazil, spanning 2006-2019. I find that extreme droughts, floods, and exceptionally high temperatures diminish political trust in local government and democracy among affluent citizens. In contrast, the trust of less affluent individuals remains largely unaffected by extreme weather, as my theory predicts. These findings highlight the importance of considering preexisting inequities in the interplay of extreme weather, government responsiveness, and political disaffection in Global south contexts.