Dollar Dominance and the Export Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
An emerging academic and policy view contends that a monetary-policy induced depreciation by a (non-US) country invoicing in dollars cannot stabilise activity, as the classical expenditure-switching channel is muted. This weakens the exchange-rate channel of monetary policy transmission. The key premises underlying this view are that i) exporters have monopoly power and ii) their prices are sticky in US dollars. However, goods priced in dollars are typically traded in highly competitive global markets and tend to have more flexible prices; this is particularly the case for exporters in emerging or developing countries. We propose a new open economy model with more realistic assumptions and show that loosening monetary policy boosts exports and activity; the limit to any expansion is not demand, but supply capacity. We furthermore show that low pass-through is not informative about the degree of nominal stickiness: limited price responses are an equilibrium result in our model, rather than an assumption. We present new evidence that both exports and activity respond strongly to exchange-rate changes driven by monetary policy.
Date: 30 April 2024, 13:15
Venue: Manor Road Building, Manor Road OX1 3UQ
Venue Details: Seminar Room A or https://zoom.us/j/99960790792?pwd=eVFyRGRQc1RRS3l1U1U2UnlKTHBqUT09
Speaker: Silvana Tenreyro (LSE)
Organising department: Department of Economics
Part of: Macroeconomics Seminar
Booking required?: Not required
Audience: Members of the University only
Editor: Edward Clark