Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy (with Matteo Ciccarelli)

Using an original panel data set for 24 OECD countries over the sample 1990-2019 and a multivariate empirical macroeconomic framework for business cycle analysis, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies.

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