Migration is one of the most consequential disruptions to human society anticipated under climate change. Empirical evidence of climate-induced migration is, however, typically focused on individual regions, rendering global assessments of the scale of this issue challenging. We here provide such a quantification in a causal framework by leveraging rich migration data from more than 3000 sub-national regions worldwide and the past 20 years with detailed analysis of climate exposure. Both, warming and exposure to extremes induce outward migration from poorer regions across the globe. Explicit assessment of cross-border flows confirms migration from poor to rich countries. With climate change amplifying these effects, we project about 200 million climate migrants from low-income regions by mid-century due to rising temperatures as well heat and rainfall extremes.

About the speaker

Dr. Leonie Wenz is deputy head of the Complexity Science department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). A mathematician by training, Leonie earned her PhD in 2016 with a dissertation at the intersection of climate physics and economics. Afterwards, she did a Postdoc in Natural and Resource Economics at UC Berkeley. In her research, Leonie focusses on the societal and economic impacts of climate change with the aim of informing mitigation and adaptation pathways. Her findings have been published in, among others, Nature, Science, PNAS, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and The Lancet Planetary Health.